Santander Bank Polska S.A.

WSE:SPL Stock Report

Market Cap: zł46.2b

Santander Bank Polska Valuation

Is SPL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SPL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SPL (PLN451.7) is trading below our estimate of fair value (PLN821.91)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SPL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SPL?

Key metric: As SPL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for SPL. This is calculated by dividing SPL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is SPL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio8.7x
Earningszł5.28b
Market Capzł46.16b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SPL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for SPL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average10.4x
PEO Bank Polska Kasa Opieki
5.8x-5.8%zł36.6b
PKO Powszechna Kasa Oszczednosci Bank Polski Spólka Akcyjna
9.3x7.9%zł69.9b
ING ING Bank Slaski
7.5x1.0%zł32.6b
MBK mBank
18.9x29.2%zł23.4b
SPL Santander Bank Polska
8.7x4.1%zł46.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SPL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.7x) compared to the peer average (10.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SPL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Banks Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
SPL 8.7xIndustry Avg. 7.4xNo. of Companies45PE0612182430+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SPL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.7x) compared to the European Banks industry average (7.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SPL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SPL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio8.7x
Fair PE Ratio9.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: SPL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SPL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Currentzł451.70
zł565.45
+25.2%
9.9%zł639.00zł470.00n/a9
Nov ’25zł447.70
zł565.45
+26.3%
9.9%zł639.00zł470.00n/a9
Oct ’25zł452.60
zł565.45
+24.9%
9.9%zł639.00zł470.00n/a9
Sep ’25zł519.60
zł566.56
+9.0%
10.1%zł639.00zł470.00n/a9
Aug ’25zł508.40
zł561.43
+10.4%
10.3%zł639.00zł470.00n/a9
Jul ’25zł549.20
zł541.10
-1.5%
14.2%zł639.00zł420.00n/a9
Jun ’25zł504.40
zł543.99
+7.8%
14.8%zł646.00zł420.00n/a9
May ’25zł560.80
zł539.38
-3.8%
15.5%zł646.00zł420.00n/a9
Apr ’25zł569.50
zł517.07
-9.2%
15.6%zł646.00zł420.00n/a8
Mar ’25zł549.00
zł479.68
-12.6%
10.3%zł562.00zł409.00n/a9
Feb ’25zł484.20
zł478.57
-1.2%
10.6%zł562.00zł409.00n/a9
Jan ’25zł489.80
zł437.51
-10.7%
13.2%zł562.00zł356.00n/a9
Dec ’24zł509.50
zł411.96
-19.1%
16.2%zł486.63zł257.00n/a9
Nov ’24zł456.40
zł398.07
-12.8%
17.5%zł486.63zł257.00zł447.709
Oct ’24zł360.00
zł366.07
+1.7%
15.2%zł413.63zł238.00zł452.609
Sep ’24zł379.60
zł369.44
-2.7%
15.8%zł427.00zł238.00zł519.609
Aug ’24zł393.20
zł349.78
-11.0%
20.6%zł427.00zł200.00zł508.409
Jul ’24zł389.00
zł344.00
-11.6%
18.3%zł420.00zł200.00zł549.208
Jun ’24zł345.40
zł333.78
-3.4%
16.7%zł408.70zł200.00zł504.408
May ’24zł338.20
zł322.03
-4.8%
16.9%zł408.70zł220.00zł560.808
Apr ’24zł291.80
zł296.61
+1.6%
15.0%zł352.00zł220.00zł569.509
Mar ’24zł300.00
zł293.11
-2.3%
14.0%zł351.00zł236.00zł549.009
Feb ’24zł283.00
zł282.69
-0.1%
12.2%zł338.00zł236.00zł484.2010
Jan ’24zł259.40
zł280.69
+8.2%
11.2%zł328.96zł236.00zł489.8010
Dec ’23zł270.00
zł277.59
+2.8%
11.8%zł328.96zł220.00zł509.5010
Nov ’23zł254.20
zł272.53
+7.2%
11.0%zł325.00zł220.00zł456.4010

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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