zł870 - That's What Analysts Think mBank S.A. (WSE:MBK) Is Worth After These Results

Last week saw the newest third-quarter earnings release from mBank S.A. (WSE:MBK), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. mBank reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of zł3.2b and statutory earnings per share of zł52.73, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

This technology could replace computers: discover the 20 stocks are working to make quantum computing a reality.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from mBank's five analysts is for revenues of zł12.4b in 2026. This reflects a credible 2.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to climb 17% to zł95.89. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of zł12.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of zł111 in 2026. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the substantial drop in new EPS forecasts.

Check out our latest analysis for mBank

Althoughthe analysts have revised their earnings forecasts for next year, they've also lifted the consensus price target 5.0% to zł870, suggesting the revised estimates are not indicative of a weaker long-term future for the business. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values mBank at zł1,051 per share, while the most bearish prices it at zł626. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that mBank's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 2.2% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 21% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the 11 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 1.8% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like mBank is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for mBank going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with mBank , and understanding this should be part of your investment process.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.