Lucky Cement (KASE:LUCK) Stock Valuation, Peer Comparison & Price Targets

Q: What is the Fair Price of LUCK when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

LUCK (PKR1026.89) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (PKR1217.39)

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of LUCK when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: LUCK (PKR1026.89) is trading below our estimate of fair value (PKR1217.39)

Significantly Below Fair Value: LUCK is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for LUCK?

Key metric: As LUCK is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for LUCK. This is calculated by dividing LUCK's market cap by their current earnings.
What is LUCK's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	4.6x
Earnings	PK₨65.78b
Market Cap	PK₨300.88b

LUCK key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	3.9x
PEG Ratio	0.3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does LUCK's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for LUCK vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	9.3x
BWCL Bestway Cement	12.4x	n/a	PK₨182.5b
KOHC Kohat Cement	8x	n/a	PK₨81.3b
FCCL Fauji Cement	9.1x	23.2%	PK₨80.4b
CHCC Cherat Cement	7.7x	12.7%	PK₨53.0b
LUCK Lucky Cement	4.6x	15.2%	PK₨300.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: LUCK is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.6x) compared to the peer average (9.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does LUCK's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Basic Materials Industry?

1 Company	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

1 Company		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: LUCK is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.6x) compared to the Asian Basic Materials industry average (17.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is LUCK's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

LUCK PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	4.6x
Fair PE Ratio	7.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: LUCK is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst LUCK forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	PK₨1,026.89	PK₨1,182.40 +15.1%	10.8%	PK₨1,319.00	PK₨945.00	n/a	5
Nov ’25	PK₨922.41	PK₨1,181.40 +28.1%	10.8%	PK₨1,319.00	PK₨945.00	n/a	5
Oct ’25	PK₨889.42	PK₨1,181.40 +32.8%	10.8%	PK₨1,319.00	PK₨945.00	n/a	5
Sep ’25	PK₨829.78	PK₨1,159.50 +39.7%	10.9%	PK₨1,319.00	PK₨945.00	n/a	6
Aug ’25	PK₨880.74	PK₨1,109.56 +26.0%	10.1%	PK₨1,319.00	PK₨945.00	n/a	7
Jul ’25	PK₨898.99	PK₨1,078.77 +20.0%	6.3%	PK₨1,170.30	PK₨945.00	n/a	8
Jun ’25	PK₨898.85	PK₨1,078.77 +20.0%	6.3%	PK₨1,170.30	PK₨945.00	n/a	8
May ’25	PK₨837.65	PK₨1,074.90 +28.3%	7.1%	PK₨1,170.30	PK₨914.00	n/a	8
Apr ’25	PK₨756.65	PK₨1,049.91 +38.8%	9.6%	PK₨1,170.30	PK₨850.00	n/a	9
Mar ’25	PK₨747.07	PK₨1,049.91 +40.5%	9.6%	PK₨1,170.30	PK₨850.00	n/a	9
Feb ’25	PK₨727.13	PK₨1,049.91 +44.4%	9.6%	PK₨1,170.30	PK₨850.00	n/a	9
Jan ’25	PK₨810.68	PK₨908.33 +12.0%	17.5%	PK₨1,170.30	PK₨728.00	n/a	7
Dec ’24	PK₨818.48	PK₨799.67 -2.3%	9.1%	PK₨930.00	PK₨720.00	n/a	6
Nov ’24	PK₨638.05	PK₨786.99 +23.3%	8.6%	PK₨930.00	PK₨720.00	PK₨922.41	8
Oct ’24	PK₨564.34	PK₨756.99 +34.1%	5.4%	PK₨850.00	PK₨720.00	PK₨889.42	8
Sep ’24	PK₨555.20	PK₨747.64 +34.7%	4.2%	PK₨800.00	PK₨703.20	PK₨829.78	8
Aug ’24	PK₨592.36	PK₨735.15 +24.1%	8.8%	PK₨840.00	PK₨595.40	PK₨880.74	10
Jul ’24	PK₨522.09	PK₨726.50 +39.2%	9.3%	PK₨840.00	PK₨595.40	PK₨898.99	11
Jun ’24	PK₨516.62	PK₨720.07 +39.4%	10.1%	PK₨840.00	PK₨595.40	PK₨898.85	11
May ’24	PK₨401.17	PK₨708.75 +76.7%	10.1%	PK₨840.00	PK₨595.40	PK₨837.65	11
Apr ’24	PK₨402.44	PK₨698.30 +73.5%	11.3%	PK₨840.00	PK₨595.40	PK₨756.65	11
Mar ’24	PK₨407.92	PK₨710.59 +74.2%	10.3%	PK₨840.00	PK₨595.40	PK₨747.07	11
Feb ’24	PK₨405.07	PK₨703.12 +73.6%	10.5%	PK₨840.00	PK₨595.40	PK₨727.13	11
Jan ’24	PK₨446.58	PK₨887.46 +98.7%	12.0%	PK₨1,116.00	PK₨710.00	PK₨810.68	9
Dec ’23	PK₨468.86	PK₨860.31 +83.5%	15.1%	PK₨1,116.00	PK₨616.00	PK₨818.48	10
Nov ’23	PK₨492.37	PK₨865.56 +75.8%	14.4%	PK₨1,116.00	PK₨616.00	PK₨638.05	11

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Lucky Cement Valuation