Lucky Cement (KASE:LUCK) - Share price, News & Analysis

LUCK fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	3/6
Future Growth	5/6
Past Performance	2/6
Financial Health	3/6
Dividends	0/6

LUCK Stock Overview

Lucky Cement Limited manufactures and markets cement in Pakistan.

Rewards

Trading at 67.5% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 21.37% per year

Earnings have grown 8.9% per year over the past 5 years

Risk Analysis

Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow

High level of non-cash earnings

Lucky Cement Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Lucky Cement
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	PK₨523.33
52 Week High	PK₨945.00
52 Week Low	PK₨485.60
Beta	0.84
1 Month Change	-14.50%
3 Month Change	-24.37%
1 Year Change	-40.42%
3 Year Change	52.01%
5 Year Change	-44.38%
Change since IPO	2,457.18%

Shareholder Returns

	LUCK	PK Basic Materials	PK Market
7D	-6.6%	-6.0%	-3.3%
1Y	-40.4%	-34.2%	-9.9%

Return vs Industry: LUCK underperformed the PK Basic Materials industry which returned -34.1% over the past year.

Return vs Market: LUCK underperformed the PK Market which returned -9.9% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is LUCK's price volatile compared to industry and market?
LUCK volatility
LUCK Average Weekly Movement	5.7%
Basic Materials Industry Average Movement	6.2%
Market Average Movement	5.7%
10% most volatile stocks in PK Market	8.8%
10% least volatile stocks in PK Market	3.6%

Stable Share Price: LUCK is not significantly more volatile than the rest of PK stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 6% a week.

Volatility Over Time: LUCK's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1993	6,849	Muhammad Tabba	https://www.lucky-cement.com

Lucky Cement Limited manufactures and markets cement in Pakistan. The company offers ordinary Portland cement that is used in general constructions, concrete mortars, grouts, etc.; sulphate resistant cement for use in foundations near seashore and canal linings; clinkers; composite cement; and block cement primarily under the Lucky Cement, Lucky Star, Lucky Gold, and Raj Cement brand names. It also manufactures polyester staple fiber, POY chips, soda ash, specialty chemicals, sodium bicarbonate, and polyurethanes; markets seeds, toll manufactured and imported pharmaceuticals, animal health products, and general chemicals; acts as an indenting agent and toll manufacturer; and manufactures and sells infant and grown up formulas.

Lucky Cement Fundamentals Summary

How do Lucky Cement's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
LUCK fundamental statistics
Market Cap	PK₨169.23b
Earnings (TTM)	PK₨25.35b
Revenue (TTM)	PK₨266.94b

6.7x

P/E Ratio

0.6x

P/S Ratio

Is LUCK overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
LUCK income statement (TTM)
Revenue	PK₨266.94b
Cost of Revenue	PK₨214.78b
Gross Profit	PK₨52.16b
Other Expenses	PK₨26.81b
Earnings	PK₨25.35b

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	78.39
Gross Margin	19.54%
Net Profit Margin	9.50%
Debt/Equity Ratio	83.8%

How did LUCK perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Valuation

Is Lucky Cement undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PE vs Industry
PE vs Market
PEG Ratio
PB vs Industry

>50%

Undervalued compared to fair value

Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: LUCK (PKR523.33) is trading below our estimate of fair value (PKR1611.86)

Significantly Below Fair Value: LUCK is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: LUCK is poor value based on its PE Ratio (6.7x) compared to the PK Basic Materials industry average (6x).

PE vs Market: LUCK is poor value based on its PE Ratio (6.7x) compared to the PK market (5.7x).

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: LUCK is good value based on its PEG Ratio (0.3x)

Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: LUCK is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (1.1x) compared to the PK Basic Materials industry average (0.8x).

Future Growth

How is Lucky Cement forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 7 analysts?

Future Growth Score

5/6

Future Growth Score 5/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

21.4%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: LUCK's forecast earnings growth (21.4% per year) is above the savings rate (10.2%).

Earnings vs Market: LUCK's earnings (21.4% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the PK market (3.9% per year).

High Growth Earnings: earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: LUCK's revenue (16.6% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the PK market (4.2% per year).

High Growth Revenue: LUCK's revenue (16.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: LUCK's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (22%)

Past Performance

How has Lucky Cement performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

2/6

Past Performance Score 2/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

8.9%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: LUCK has a high level of non-cash earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: LUCK's current net profit margins (9.5%) are lower than last year (10.6%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: LUCK's earnings have grown by 8.9% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: LUCK's earnings growth over the past year (28.6%) exceeds its 5-year average (8.9% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: LUCK earnings growth over the past year (28.6%) underperformed the Basic Materials industry 66.4%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: LUCK's Return on Equity (17.6%) is considered low.

Financial Health

How is Lucky Cement's financial position?

Financial Health Score

3/6

Financial Health Score 3/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: LUCK's short term assets (PKR161.8B) exceed its short term liabilities (PKR144.3B).

Long Term Liabilities: LUCK's short term assets (PKR161.8B) exceed its long term liabilities (PKR138.1B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: LUCK's net debt to equity ratio (65.1%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: LUCK's debt to equity ratio has increased from 12.3% to 83.8% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: LUCK's operating cash flow is negative, therefore debt is not well covered.

Interest Coverage: LUCK's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (104.7x coverage).

Balance Sheet

Dividend

What is Lucky Cement current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

2.43%

Forecast Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate LUCK's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate LUCK's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if LUCK's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if LUCK's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: LUCK is not paying a notable dividend for the PK market.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as LUCK has not reported any payouts.

Next Steps

Explore strong dividend paying companies in the Materials industry.

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

4.9yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Muhammad Tabba

17yrs

Tenure

PK₨5,159,000

Compensation

Mr. Muhammad Ali A. Razzak Tabba serves as the Chief Executive Officer of Y.B. Pakistan Limited. Mr. Razzak Tabba has been the Chief Executive Officer of Lucky Cement Limited since May 2005 and its serves...

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: LUCK's management team is considered experienced (4.9 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: LUCK's board of directors are considered experienced (9.6 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/05/14 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/05/13 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/06/30