Marathon Oil Corporation

BVL:MRO Stock Report

Market Cap: US$16.2b

Marathon Oil Valuation

Is MRO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MRO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MRO ($28.8) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($51.55)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MRO is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MRO?

Key metric: As MRO is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MRO. This is calculated by dividing MRO's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MRO's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio12.2x
EarningsUS$1.33b
Market CapUS$16.18b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MRO's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MRO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average11x
TATN PJSC Tatneft
4.6xn/a₽915.4b
CTRA Coterra Energy
16.3x29.8%US$19.8b
TOU Tourmaline Oil
16.2x25.5%CA$24.3b
PTTEP PTT Exploration and Production
6.6x-8.7%฿506.2b
MRO Marathon Oil
12.2x-5.8%US$16.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MRO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.2x) compared to the peer average (12.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MRO's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Oil and Gas Industry?

30 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
MRO 12.2xIndustry Avg. 10.6xNo. of Companies81PE0816243240+
30 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MRO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.2x) compared to the Global Oil and Gas industry average (10.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MRO's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MRO PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio12.2x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate MRO's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MRO forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$28.80
US$31.02
+7.7%
10.3%US$37.00US$27.00n/a21
Nov ’25US$27.77
US$30.97
+11.5%
11.0%US$37.00US$27.00n/a21
Oct ’25US$28.99
US$31.38
+8.3%
13.7%US$42.00US$27.00n/a21
Sep ’25US$28.99
US$32.67
+12.7%
12.2%US$42.00US$27.00n/a21
Aug ’25US$28.99
US$32.83
+13.2%
11.0%US$42.00US$28.00n/a21
Jul ’25n/a
US$33.50
0%
12.1%US$45.00US$28.00n/a21
Jun ’25n/a
US$33.75
0%
12.1%US$45.00US$28.00n/a20
May ’25n/a
US$33.87
0%
12.9%US$45.00US$24.00n/a25
Apr ’25n/a
US$31.82
0%
11.0%US$39.00US$24.00n/a24
Mar ’25n/a
US$30.77
0%
13.9%US$39.00US$24.00n/a25
Feb ’25n/a
US$31.09
0%
13.9%US$39.00US$24.00n/a25
Jan ’25n/a
US$32.35
0%
12.8%US$40.00US$25.00n/a25
Dec ’24n/a
US$33.45
0%
13.9%US$45.00US$26.50n/a25
Nov ’24n/a
US$33.31
0%
14.7%US$45.00US$22.00US$27.7725
Oct ’24n/a
US$32.87
0%
14.9%US$45.00US$22.00US$28.9925
Sep ’24n/a
US$32.31
0%
14.6%US$40.00US$22.00US$28.9925
Aug ’24n/a
US$31.45
0%
14.6%US$40.00US$25.00US$28.9925
Jul ’24n/a
US$32.45
0%
17.9%US$48.00US$25.00n/a25
Jun ’24n/a
US$32.93
0%
16.8%US$48.00US$25.00n/a25
May ’24n/a
US$33.33
0%
16.3%US$48.00US$23.00n/a26
Apr ’24n/a
US$33.07
0%
15.8%US$43.00US$23.00n/a26
Mar ’24n/a
US$33.72
0%
15.2%US$48.00US$23.00n/a26
Feb ’24n/a
US$34.11
0%
15.1%US$48.00US$23.00n/a25
Jan ’24n/a
US$34.30
0%
16.4%US$48.00US$23.00n/a23
Dec ’23n/a
US$34.30
0%
16.7%US$48.00US$23.00n/a23
Nov ’23n/a
US$31.49
0%
14.9%US$40.00US$19.00n/a24

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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