Marathon Oil Valuation

Is MRO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MRO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MRO ($27.77) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($48.7)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MRO is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MRO?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

MRO key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA4.8x
PEG Ratio-1.3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MRO's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MRO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average9.9x
STO Santos
11.5x11.7%AU$22.0b
PTTEP PTT Exploration and Production
6.8x-7.6%฿502.2b
TATN PJSC Tatneft
4.6xn/a₽915.4b
TOU Tourmaline Oil
16.5x42.3%CA$23.9b
MRO Marathon Oil
10.4x-7.9%US$15.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MRO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.4x) compared to the peer average (11.5x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MRO's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Oil and Gas Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a13.0%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a13.0%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MRO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.4x) compared to the Global Oil and Gas industry average (10.3x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MRO's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MRO PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio10.4x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate MRO's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MRO forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$27.77
US$31.17
+12.3%
10.8%US$37.00US$27.00n/a20
Oct ’25US$28.99
US$31.60
+9.0%
13.6%US$42.00US$27.00n/a20
Sep ’25US$28.99
US$32.67
+12.7%
12.2%US$42.00US$27.00n/a21
Aug ’25US$28.99
US$32.83
+13.2%
11.0%US$42.00US$28.00n/a21
Jul ’25n/a
US$33.50
0%
12.1%US$45.00US$28.00n/a21
Jun ’25n/a
US$33.75
0%
12.1%US$45.00US$28.00n/a20
May ’25n/a
US$33.87
0%
12.9%US$45.00US$24.00n/a25
Apr ’25n/a
US$31.82
0%
11.0%US$39.00US$24.00n/a24
Mar ’25n/a
US$30.77
0%
13.9%US$39.00US$24.00n/a25
Feb ’25n/a
US$31.09
0%
13.9%US$39.00US$24.00n/a25
Jan ’25n/a
US$32.35
0%
12.8%US$40.00US$25.00n/a25
Dec ’24n/a
US$33.45
0%
13.9%US$45.00US$26.50n/a25
Nov ’24n/a
US$33.31
0%
14.7%US$45.00US$22.00US$27.7725
Oct ’24n/a
US$32.87
0%
14.9%US$45.00US$22.00US$28.9925
Sep ’24n/a
US$32.31
0%
14.6%US$40.00US$22.00US$28.9925
Aug ’24n/a
US$31.45
0%
14.6%US$40.00US$25.00US$28.9925
Jul ’24n/a
US$32.45
0%
17.9%US$48.00US$25.00n/a25
Jun ’24n/a
US$32.93
0%
16.8%US$48.00US$25.00n/a25
May ’24n/a
US$33.33
0%
16.3%US$48.00US$23.00n/a26
Apr ’24n/a
US$33.07
0%
15.8%US$43.00US$23.00n/a26
Mar ’24n/a
US$33.72
0%
15.2%US$48.00US$23.00n/a26
Feb ’24n/a
US$34.11
0%
15.1%US$48.00US$23.00n/a25
Jan ’24n/a
US$34.30
0%
16.4%US$48.00US$23.00n/a23
Dec ’23n/a
US$34.30
0%
16.7%US$48.00US$23.00n/a23
Nov ’23n/a
US$31.49
0%
14.9%US$40.00US$19.00n/a24

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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