Manawa Energy Valuation

Is MNW undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MNW when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MNW (NZ$5.39) is trading below our estimate of fair value (NZ$10.22)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MNW is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MNW?

Key metric: As MNW is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for MNW. This is calculated by dividing MNW's market cap by their current revenue.
What is MNW's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio	3x
Sales	NZ$561.11m
Market Cap	NZ$1.67b

MNW key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	3.9x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	19.6x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does MNW's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for MNW vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	2.3x
GNE Genesis Energy	0.8x	-4.0%	NZ$2.4b
CEN Contact Energy	2.4x	-1.9%	NZ$6.9b
MCY Mercury NZ	2.7x	-2.0%	NZ$9.5b
VCT Vector	3.3x	5.5%	NZ$3.8b
MNW Manawa Energy	3x	-3.7%	NZ$1.7b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: MNW is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3x) compared to the peer average (2.3x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does MNW's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Electric Utilities Industry?

48 Companies	Price / Sales	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

48 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: MNW is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3x) compared to the Global Electric Utilities industry average (1.2x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MNW's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MNW PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	3x
Fair PS Ratio	2.6x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: MNW is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MNW forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	NZ$5.39	NZ$5.98 +11.0%	6.9%	NZ$6.42	NZ$5.43	n/a	3
Nov ’25	NZ$5.42	NZ$5.99 +10.5%	6.7%	NZ$6.42	NZ$5.45	n/a	3
Oct ’25	NZ$5.03	NZ$5.78 +14.9%	9.1%	NZ$6.20	NZ$5.04	n/a	3
Sep ’25	NZ$3.96	NZ$5.60 +41.4%	18.6%	NZ$7.35	NZ$4.35	n/a	5
Aug ’25	NZ$4.26	NZ$5.81 +36.3%	16.6%	NZ$7.55	NZ$4.85	n/a	5
Jul ’25	NZ$4.12	NZ$5.79 +40.6%	16.7%	NZ$7.55	NZ$4.85	n/a	5
Jun ’25	NZ$4.20	NZ$5.74 +36.7%	17.5%	NZ$7.55	NZ$4.85	n/a	5
May ’25	NZ$4.24	NZ$5.83 +37.4%	20.1%	NZ$7.90	NZ$4.80	n/a	5
Apr ’25	NZ$4.55	NZ$5.67 +24.6%	23.9%	NZ$7.90	NZ$3.95	n/a	5
Mar ’25	NZ$4.13	NZ$5.57 +34.9%	25.7%	NZ$7.90	NZ$3.70	n/a	5
Feb ’25	NZ$4.25	NZ$5.55 +30.6%	26.2%	NZ$7.90	NZ$3.60	n/a	5
Jan ’25	NZ$4.29	NZ$5.56 +29.6%	26.2%	NZ$7.90	NZ$3.60	n/a	5
Dec ’24	NZ$4.52	NZ$5.56 +23.0%	26.2%	NZ$7.90	NZ$3.60	n/a	5
Nov ’24	NZ$4.25	NZ$5.57 +31.1%	27.1%	NZ$8.00	NZ$3.47	NZ$5.42	5
Oct ’24	NZ$4.52	NZ$5.70 +26.2%	24.9%	NZ$8.10	NZ$3.90	NZ$5.03	5
Sep ’24	NZ$4.51	NZ$5.75 +27.5%	24.4%	NZ$8.10	NZ$3.90	NZ$3.96	5
Aug ’24	NZ$4.80	NZ$5.75 +19.8%	24.4%	NZ$8.10	NZ$3.90	NZ$4.26	5
Jul ’24	NZ$4.95	NZ$5.75 +16.2%	24.4%	NZ$8.10	NZ$3.90	NZ$4.12	5
Jun ’24	NZ$4.80	NZ$5.77 +20.3%	24.9%	NZ$8.21	NZ$3.90	NZ$4.20	5
May ’24	NZ$4.90	NZ$6.06 +23.8%	23.0%	NZ$8.45	NZ$4.59	NZ$4.24	5
Apr ’24	NZ$4.97	NZ$6.15 +23.8%	21.8%	NZ$8.45	NZ$4.67	NZ$4.55	5
Mar ’24	NZ$4.93	NZ$6.20 +25.8%	21.1%	NZ$8.45	NZ$4.67	NZ$4.13	5
Feb ’24	NZ$5.39	NZ$6.10 +13.2%	22.9%	NZ$8.45	NZ$4.45	NZ$4.25	5
Jan ’24	NZ$5.00	NZ$6.06 +21.2%	23.4%	NZ$8.45	NZ$4.45	NZ$4.29	5
Dec ’23	NZ$5.25	NZ$6.06 +15.4%	23.4%	NZ$8.45	NZ$4.45	NZ$4.52	5
Nov ’23	NZ$5.50	NZ$6.58 +19.6%	18.4%	NZ$8.50	NZ$4.90	NZ$4.25	5

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.