Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For Tourism Holdings Limited (NZSE:THL) After Its Interim Results

Last week, you might have seen that Tourism Holdings Limited (NZSE:THL) released its half-yearly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.9% to NZ$3.50 in the past week. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of NZ$449m and statutory earnings per share of NZ$0.26 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Tourism Holdings is executing in line with expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Tourism Holdings

Following the latest results, Tourism Holdings' six analysts are now forecasting revenues of NZ$913.1m in 2024. This would be a reasonable 7.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to expand 16% to NZ$0.34. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of NZ$905.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of NZ$0.38 in 2024. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the substantial drop in new EPS forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at NZ$4.68, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Tourism Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at NZ$5.34 and the most bearish at NZ$3.80 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Tourism Holdings' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 15% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 11% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.9% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Tourism Holdings is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at NZ$4.68, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Tourism Holdings going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Even so, be aware that Tourism Holdings is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 2 of those are concerning...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.