Freightways Group Limited (NZSE:FRW) Just Released Its Yearly Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think

Last week saw the newest full-year earnings release from Freightways Group Limited (NZSE:FRW), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of NZ$1.2b and statutory earnings per share of NZ$0.40 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Freightways Group is executing in line with expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Freightways Group after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Freightways Group

Following the latest results, Freightways Group's four analysts are now forecasting revenues of NZ$1.27b in 2025. This would be a reasonable 5.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to ascend 12% to NZ$0.44. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of NZ$1.27b and earnings per share (EPS) of NZ$0.45 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at NZ$9.63, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Freightways Group at NZ$10.35 per share, while the most bearish prices it at NZ$9.56. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Freightways Group is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Freightways Group's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Freightways Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 5.2% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 16% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 5.7% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Freightways Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Freightways Group going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Freightways Group that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.