Stock Analysis

If You Had Bought Air New Zealand's (NZSE:AIR) Shares Three Years Ago You Would Be Down 45%

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NZSE:AIR
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As an investor its worth striving to ensure your overall portfolio beats the market average. But in any portfolio, there are likely to be some stocks that fall short of that benchmark. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term Air New Zealand Limited (NZSE:AIR) shareholders, since the share price is down 45% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return of around 59%. And the ride hasn't got any smoother in recent times over the last year, with the price 43% lower in that time. More recently, the share price has dropped a further 8.2% in a month. However, we note the price may have been impacted by the broader market, which is down 4.0% in the same time period.

View our latest analysis for Air New Zealand

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

Air New Zealand saw its share price decline over the three years in which its EPS also dropped, falling to a loss. Due to the loss, it's not easy to use EPS as a reliable guide to the business. But it's safe to say we'd generally expect the share price to be lower as a result!

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-per-share-growth
NZSE:AIR Earnings Per Share Growth February 9th 2021

We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..

What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

We've already covered Air New Zealand's share price action, but we should also mention its total shareholder return (TSR). Arguably the TSR is a more complete return calculation because it accounts for the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested), along with the hypothetical value of any discounted capital that have been offered to shareholders. Dividends have been really beneficial for Air New Zealand shareholders, and that cash payout explains why its total shareholder loss of 35%, over the last 3 years, isn't as bad as the share price return.

A Different Perspective

Investors in Air New Zealand had a tough year, with a total loss of 43%, against a market gain of about 14%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 0.8% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Air New Zealand better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for Air New Zealand you should be aware of.

Air New Zealand is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on NZ exchanges.

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