Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Air New Zealand Limited (NZSE:AIR)

Key Insights

• Air New Zealand's estimated fair value is NZ$0.53 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• Air New Zealand's NZ$0.61 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate
• Our fair value estimate is 23% lower than Air New Zealand's analyst price target of NZ$0.69

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Air New Zealand Limited (NZSE:AIR) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for Air New Zealand

The Method

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF (NZ$, Millions)	-NZ$417.7m	-NZ$634.3m	-NZ$379.7m	-NZ$298.6m	NZ$133.9m	NZ$196.8m	NZ$262.9m	NZ$326.8m	NZ$384.9m	NZ$435.8m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Est @ 46.95%	Est @ 33.63%	Est @ 24.30%	Est @ 17.78%	Est @ 13.21%
Present Value (NZ$, Millions) Discounted @ 9.9%	-NZ$380	-NZ$525	-NZ$286	-NZ$205	NZ$83.5	NZ$112	NZ$136	NZ$154	NZ$165	NZ$170

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = -NZ$577m

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.6%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 9.9%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = NZ$436m× (1 + 2.6%) ÷ (9.9%– 2.6%) = NZ$6.1b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= NZ$6.1b÷ ( 1 + 9.9%)¹⁰= NZ$2.4b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is NZ$1.8b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of NZ$0.6, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

Important Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Air New Zealand as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.598. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Air New Zealand

Moving On:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Air New Zealand, we've put together three additional elements you should explore:

1. Risks: Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Air New Zealand you should know about.
2. Future Earnings: How does AIR's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NZSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.