Winton Land Limited's (NZSE:WIN) Analyst Just Slashed This Year's Estimates

The latest analyst coverage could presage a bad day for Winton Land Limited (NZSE:WIN), with the covering analyst making across-the-board cuts to their statutory estimates that might leave shareholders a little shell-shocked. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts went under the knife, suggesting the analyst has soured majorly on the business.

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Following the downgrade, the most recent consensus for Winton Land from its one analyst is for revenues of NZ$160m in 2026 which, if met, would be a credible 2.7% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are anticipated to plummet 62% to NZ$0.013 in the same period. Before this latest update, the analyst had been forecasting revenues of NZ$198m and earnings per share (EPS) of NZ$0.055 in 2026. It looks like analyst sentiment has declined substantially, with a measurable cut to revenue estimates and a large cut to earnings per share numbers as well.

View our latest analysis for Winton Land

What's most unexpected is that the consensus price target rose 6.7% to NZ$2.40, strongly implying the downgrade to forecasts is not expected to be more than a temporary blip.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Winton Land's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 2.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 8.8% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 11% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Winton Land.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analyst cut their earnings per share estimates, expecting a clear decline in business conditions. Unfortunately the analyst also downgraded their revenue estimates, and industry data suggests that Winton Land's revenues are expected to grow slower than the wider market. The rising price target is a puzzle, but still - with a serious cut to this year's outlook, we wouldn't be surprised if investors were a bit wary of Winton Land.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have analyst estimates for Winton Land going out as far as 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks with high insider ownership.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.