Major Estimate Revision • Jun 01
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 17% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2027 has deteriorated. 2027 revenue forecast decreased from NZ$20.5m to NZ$19.3m. Losses expected to increase from NZ$0.021 per share to NZ$0.025. Biotechs industry in New Zealand expected to see average net income growth of 2.8% next year. Consensus price target up from NZ$0.16 to NZ$0.20. Share price was steady at NZ$0.28 over the past week. Reported Earnings • May 26
Full year 2026 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Full year 2026 results: NZ$38.00 loss per share (further deteriorated from NZ$0.037 loss in FY 2025). Revenue: NZ$13.6m (down 40% from FY 2025). Net loss: NZ$35.8m (loss widened 20% from FY 2025). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 2.5%. Revenue is forecast to grow 40% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 4.2% growth forecast for the Biotechs industry in Oceania. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 180 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. New Risk • May 16
New major risk - Shareholder dilution The company's shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year. Increase in shares outstanding: 44% This is considered a major risk. Shareholder dilution occurs when there is an increase in the number of shares on issue that is not proportionally distributed between all shareholders. Often due to the company raising equity capital or some options being converted into stock. All else being equal, if there are more shares outstanding then each existing share will be entitled to a lower proportion of the company's total earnings, thus reducing earnings per share (EPS). While dilution might not always result in lower EPS (like if the company is using the capital to fund an EPS accretive acquisition) in a lot cases it does, along with lower dividends per share and less voting power at shareholder meetings. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (17% average weekly change). Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year (44% increase in shares outstanding). Minor Risk Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over next 2 years (NZ$18m net loss in 2 years). Announcement • May 15
Pacific Edge Limited has completed a Follow-on Equity Offering in the amount of NZD 25.4 million. Pacific Edge Limited has completed a Follow-on Equity Offering in the amount of NZD 25.4 million.
Security Name: Ordinary Shares
Security Type: Common Stock
Securities Offered: 149,411,765
Price\Range: NZD 0.17
Transaction Features: Subsequent Direct Listing Live News • May 13
Pacific Edge Seeks NZ$24 Million for Medicare Reinstatement and Cxbladder Expansion Pacific Edge has launched a NZ$24m capital raise, comprising an NZ$18m institutional placement and a NZ$6m retail offer at NZ$0.17 per share, alongside a temporary trading halt on the NZX and ASX.
The company plans to use the new capital to support efforts to regain US Medicare coverage for its Cxbladder bladder cancer tests, strengthen its balance sheet and continue product development following losses linked to the earlier Medicare non-coverage decision.
Pacific Edge has set 25 May 2026 for its FY26 results release and will host an investor call, with management flagging growing global uptake of Cxbladder tests and wider use among urologists and public health systems.
The capital raise and upcoming results date together frame a key period where investors will receive more clarity on how Medicare reimbursement efforts and global Cxbladder adoption are affecting Pacific Edge’s commercial trajectory and cash position.
A central risk to keep in mind is the company’s reliance on a positive Medicare coverage outcome, which remains unresolved and could materially influence future revenue mix and funding needs. Breakeven Date Change • May 12
Forecast to breakeven in 2028 The 2 analysts covering Pacific Edge expect the company to break even for the first time. New consensus forecast suggests losses will reduce by 5.2% per year to 2027. The company is expected to make a profit of NZ$6.80m in 2028. Average annual earnings growth of 55% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule. Announcement • May 12
Pacific Edge Limited to Report Fiscal Year 2026 Results on May 25, 2026 Pacific Edge Limited announced that they will report fiscal year 2026 results at 10:00 AM, IDLE - International Date Line on May 25, 2026 New Risk • Mar 31
New minor risk - Market cap size The company's market capitalization is less than US$100m. Market cap: NZ$174.9m (US$99.9m) This is considered a minor risk. Companies with a small market capitalization are most likely businesses that have not yet released a product to market or are simply a very small company without a wide reach. Either way, risk is elevated with these companies because there is a chance the product may not come to fruition or the company's addressable market or demand may not be as large as expected. In addition, if the company's size is the main factor, it is less likely to have many investors and analysts following it and scrutinizing its performance and outlook. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Less than 1 year of cash runway based on free cash flow trend (-NZ$32m free cash flow). Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (8.4% average weekly change). Minor Risks Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over next 2 years (NZ$16m net loss in 2 years). Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (26% increase in shares outstanding). Market cap is less than US$100m (NZ$174.9m market cap, or US$99.9m). New Risk • Jan 30
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of New Zealander stocks, typically moving 6.8% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Less than 1 year of cash runway based on free cash flow trend (-NZ$32m free cash flow). Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (6.8% average weekly change). Minor Risks Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over next 2 years (NZ$16m net loss in 2 years). Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (26% increase in shares outstanding). Reported Earnings • Nov 27
First half 2026 earnings released: NZ$0.022 loss per share (vs NZ$0.018 loss in 1H 2025) First half 2026 results: NZ$0.022 loss per share (further deteriorated from NZ$0.018 loss in 1H 2025). Revenue: NZ$6.84m (down 40% from 1H 2025). Net loss: NZ$19.1m (loss widened 32% from 1H 2025). Revenue is expected to decline by 2.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Biotechs industry in Oceania are expected to grow by 7.6%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 8% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 31% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. New Risk • Nov 26
New major risk - Financial position The company has less than a year of cash runway based on its current free cash flow trend. Free cash flow: -NZ$32m This is considered a major risk. With less than a year's worth of cash, the company will need to raise capital or take on debt unless its cash flows improve. This would dilute existing shareholders or increase balance sheet risk. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Less than 1 year of cash runway based on free cash flow trend (-NZ$32m free cash flow). Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (9.6% average weekly change). Minor Risks Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over next 2 years (NZ$16m net loss in 2 years). Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (26% increase in shares outstanding). Market cap is less than US$100m (NZ$169.7m market cap, or US$95.3m). New Risk • Nov 10
New minor risk - Market cap size The company's market capitalization is less than US$100m. Market cap: NZ$174.8m (US$98.6m) This is considered a minor risk. Companies with a small market capitalization are most likely businesses that have not yet released a product to market or are simply a very small company without a wide reach. Either way, risk is elevated with these companies because there is a chance the product may not come to fruition or the company's addressable market or demand may not be as large as expected. In addition, if the company's size is the main factor, it is less likely to have many investors and analysts following it and scrutinizing its performance and outlook. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (10% average weekly change). Minor Risks Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over next 3 years (NZ$4.9m net loss in 3 years). Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (26% increase in shares outstanding). Market cap is less than US$100m (NZ$174.8m market cap, or US$98.6m). Announcement • Nov 06
Pacific Edge Limited to Report First Half, 2026 Results on Nov 25, 2025 Pacific Edge Limited announced that they will report first half, 2026 results on Nov 25, 2025 New Risk • Aug 25
New minor risk - Shareholder dilution The company's shareholders have been diluted in the past year. Increase in shares outstanding: 26% This is considered a minor risk. Shareholder dilution occurs when there is an increase in the number of shares on issue that is not proportionally distributed between all shareholders. Often due to the company raising equity capital or some options being converted into stock. All else being equal, if there are more shares outstanding then each existing share will be entitled to a lower proportion of the company's total earnings, thus reducing earnings per share (EPS). While dilution might not always result in lower EPS (like if the company is using the capital to fund an EPS accretive acquisition) in a lot cases it does, along with lower dividends per share and less voting power at shareholder meetings. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over next 3 years (NZ$11m net loss in 3 years). Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (7.2% average weekly change). Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (26% increase in shares outstanding). Market cap is less than US$100m (NZ$135.9m market cap, or US$79.7m). Announcement • Jun 16
Pacific Edge Limited, Annual General Meeting, Aug 06, 2025 Pacific Edge Limited, Annual General Meeting, Aug 06, 2025. Location: auckland New Zealand Major Estimate Revision • Jun 05
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 43% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2026 has been updated. 2026 expected loss increased from -NZ$0.023 to -NZ$0.032 per share. Revenue forecast unchanged at NZ$13.0m. Biotechs industry in New Zealand expected to see average net income decline 0.7% next year. Consensus price target of NZ$0.13 unchanged from last update. Share price rose 21% to NZ$0.099 over the past week. Announcement • Jun 03
Pacific Edge Limited has completed a Follow-on Equity Offering in the amount of NZD 16 million. Pacific Edge Limited has completed a Follow-on Equity Offering in the amount of NZD 16 million.
Security Name: Ordinary Shares
Security Type: Common Stock
Securities Offered: 150,000,000
Price\Range: NZD 0.1
Security Name: Ordinary Shares
Security Type: Common Stock
Securities Offered: 10,000,000
Price\Range: NZD 0.1
Transaction Features: Subsequent Direct Listing Reported Earnings • May 31
Full year 2025 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Full year 2025 results: NZ$0.037 loss per share (further deteriorated from NZ$0.036 loss in FY 2024). Revenue: NZ$24.7m (down 2.2% from FY 2024). Net loss: NZ$29.9m (loss widened 1.4% from FY 2024). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 12%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 11%. Revenue is expected to decline by 25% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, while revenues in the Biotechs industry in Oceania are expected to grow by 8.6%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 12% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 53% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. Announcement • May 31
Pacific Edge Limited has filed a Follow-on Equity Offering in the amount of NZD 5 million. Pacific Edge Limited has filed a Follow-on Equity Offering in the amount of NZD 5 million.
Security Name: Ordinary Shares
Security Type: Common Stock
Securities Offered: 50,000,000
Price\Range: NZD 0.1 Announcement • May 30
Pacific Edge Limited has filed a Follow-on Equity Offering. Pacific Edge Limited has filed a Follow-on Equity Offering.
Security Name: Ordinary Shares
Security Type: Common Stock
Transaction Features: Subsequent Direct Listing Announcement • May 12
Pacific Edge Limited to Report Fiscal Year 2025 Results on May 30, 2025 Pacific Edge Limited announced that they will report fiscal year 2025 results at 4:45 PM, IDLE - International Date Line on May 30, 2025 Price Target Changed • Jan 14
Price target decreased by 23% to NZ$0.12 Down from NZ$0.15, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 103% above last closing price of NZ$0.059. Stock is down 45% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of NZ$0.033 next year compared to a net loss per share of NZ$0.036 last year. New Risk • Jan 13
New minor risk - Profitability The company is currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over the next 2 years. Trailing 12-month net loss: NZ$29m Forecast net loss in 2 years: NZ$20m This is considered a minor risk. Companies that are not profitable are more likely to be burning through cash and less likely to be well established. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. Without profits, the company is under pressure to grow significantly while potentially having to reduce costs and possibly needing to take on debt or raise capital to remain afloat. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (18% average weekly change). Minor Risks Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over next 2 years (NZ$20m net loss in 2 years). Market cap is less than US$100m (NZ$108.8m market cap, or US$60.4m). Reported Earnings • Nov 30
First half 2025 earnings released: NZ$0.018 loss per share (vs NZ$0.019 loss in 1H 2024) First half 2025 results: NZ$0.018 loss per share (improved from NZ$0.019 loss in 1H 2024). Revenue: NZ$11.3m (down 19% from 1H 2024). Net loss: NZ$14.5m (loss narrowed 4.9% from 1H 2024). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 17% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 53% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. Announcement • Nov 06
Pacific Edge Limited to Report First Half, 2025 Results on Nov 26, 2024 Pacific Edge Limited announced that they will report first half, 2025 results on Nov 26, 2024 Price Target Changed • Oct 11
Price target increased by 19% to NZ$0.15 Up from NZ$0.13, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of NZ$0.15. Stock is up 44% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of NZ$0.033 next year compared to a net loss per share of NZ$0.036 last year. New Risk • Sep 24
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of New Zealander stocks, typically moving 10% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (10% average weekly change). Minor Risks Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over next 3 years (NZ$15m net loss in 3 years). Market cap is less than US$100m (NZ$121.0m market cap, or US$76.0m). Reported Earnings • May 21
Full year 2024 earnings released: NZ$0.036 loss per share (vs NZ$0.033 loss in FY 2023) Full year 2024 results: NZ$0.036 loss per share (further deteriorated from NZ$0.033 loss in FY 2023). Revenue: NZ$28.7m (up 36% from FY 2023). Net loss: NZ$29.5m (loss widened 9.5% from FY 2023). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 23% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 57% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. Breakeven Date Change • May 21
No longer forecast to breakeven The 2 analysts covering Pacific Edge no longer expect the company to break even during the foreseeable future. The company was expected to make a profit of NZ$28.8m in 2027. New consensus forecast suggests the company will make a loss of NZ$15.4m in 2027. Announcement • May 07
Pacific Edge Limited, Annual General Meeting, Sep 24, 2024 Pacific Edge Limited, Annual General Meeting, Sep 24, 2024. Announcement • May 01
Pacific Edge Limited to Report Fiscal Year 2024 Results on May 21, 2024 Pacific Edge Limited announced that they will report fiscal year 2024 results at 10:00 AM, NZST - New Zealand Standard on May 21, 2024 Board Change • Apr 01
Insufficient new directors No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 10 experienced directors. 2 highly experienced directors. Independent Non-Executive Director Anna Stove was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2021. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Insufficient board refreshment. Announcement • Mar 14
Pacific Edge Limited Announces Board Changes Pacific Edge Limited announced the retirement of Chair Chris Gallaher and Non-Executive Director Mark Green. Mr. Gallaher, who joined the Pacific Edge Board in July 2016, has resolved to reduce his governance commitments, and has indicated his intention to retire from the Board following the appointment of a successor and a structured handover at the end of this year. Meanwhile, with his family having made new commitments offshore, Mr. Green has notified the Board he does not intend to seek re-election at the company's next Annual Shareholders Meeting in September. Mr. Green joined the Pacific Edge Board in May 2021. The Board's Nomination Committee has commenced a process to appoint a new Chair and consider the recruitment of new Independent Directors. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 30
Consensus EPS estimates upgraded to NZ$0.034 loss The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 losses forecast to reduce from -NZ$0.048 per share to -NZ$0.034 per share. Revenue forecast reaffirmed at NZ$30.4m. Biotechs industry in New Zealand expected to see average net income growth of 28% next year. Consensus price target down from NZ$0.15 to NZ$0.14. Share price fell 5.0% to NZ$0.096 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Nov 24
First half 2024 earnings released: NZ$0.019 loss per share (vs NZ$0.013 loss in 1H 2023) First half 2024 results: NZ$0.019 loss per share (further deteriorated from NZ$0.013 loss in 1H 2023). Revenue: NZ$14.0m (up 47% from 1H 2023). Net loss: NZ$15.3m (loss widened 44% from 1H 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 39% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 9.0% growth forecast for the Biotechs industry in Oceania. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 20% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 47% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. Announcement • Oct 19
Pacific Edge Limited to Report First Half, 2024 Results on Nov 23, 2023 Pacific Edge Limited announced that they will report first half, 2024 results on Nov 23, 2023 Price Target Changed • Oct 12
Price target decreased by 7.8% to NZ$0.15 Down from NZ$0.16, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 40% above last closing price of NZ$0.10. Stock is down 77% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of NZ$0.055 next year compared to a net loss per share of NZ$0.033 last year. Recent Insider Transactions • Sep 21
Independent Non-Executive Director recently bought NZ$3.1m worth of stock On the 15th of September, Anatole G. Masfen bought around 9m shares on-market at roughly NZ$0.33 per share. This trade did not impact their existing holding. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have collectively bought NZ$3.2m more in shares than they have sold in the last 12 months. Recent Insider Transactions • Aug 04
Key Executive recently bought NZ$54k worth of stock On the 2nd of August, Chris Gallaher bought around 398k shares on-market at roughly NZ$0.14 per share. This transaction amounted to 66% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. This was Chris' only on-market trade for the last 12 months. Price Target Changed • Jun 09
Price target decreased by 34% to NZ$0.38 Down from NZ$0.57, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 268% above last closing price of NZ$0.10. Stock is down 86% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of NZ$0.047 next year compared to a net loss per share of NZ$0.033 last year. Announcement • Jun 09
Pacific Edge Limited Announces Medicare Coverage of Cxbladder Tests in the US Market is Expected to Cease from 17 July 2023 Pacific Edge announces Medicare coverage of Cxbladder tests in the US market is expected to cease from 17 July 2023. This development follows the finalization of a Local Coverage Determination (LCD) (L39365) by Novitas, the Medicare Administrative Contractor (MAC) with jurisdiction for Pacific Edge's laboratory in Hershey Pennsylvania. The finalized LCD, which includes Cxbladder and tests provided by other companies, specifically notes the Cxbladder tests Triage, Detect, Monitor, Resolve and Detect+ as `not considered medically reasonable and necessary', the threshold required for coverage under the US Social Security Act. A number of other companies are also affected by the LCD. Over the coming days Pacific Edge will seek to explore all available legal options (including a potential appeal) with US-based lawyers, the key opinion leaders among customers, partners at The Coalition for 21st Century Medicine, and other impacted companies. Pacific Edge is currently unable to fully determine the impact of the new LCD on test volumes in the US market for the 2024 financial year. For the immediate future, the company will continue to promote Cxbladder and process all tests ordered by US clinicians whilst it further considers its strategy and future options. The company believes that in the short term it is prudent to continue to support Cxbladder as it determines the best path forward, but the approach will be accompanied by cost containment initiatives including, but not limited to an immediate hiring freeze and a halt on discretionary spending and new capital expenditure. In light of this new LCD, management and the Board at Pacific Edge are reviewing the scenario planning commenced last year to determine a strategic path forward that potentially includes: a) legal challenges or appeals, b) seeking to regain coverage through Novitas, c) seeking to be awarded coverage through an alternative MAC, d) alternative billing practices that would increase patient responsibility and e) remaining open to other strategic alternatives. Which of these the company adopts, will be determined by considering a number of factors including the potential impact on revenue, expenditure and cash reserves, the time and resources required to regain coverage, shareholder value implications, and the expected likelihood of success. Reported Earnings • May 26
Full year 2023 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Full year 2023 results: NZ$0.033 loss per share (further deteriorated from NZ$0.026 loss in FY 2022). Revenue: NZ$23.8m (up 81% from FY 2022). Net loss: NZ$27.0m (loss widened 36% from FY 2022). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 3.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 3.5%. Revenue is forecast to grow 38% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 12% growth forecast for the Biotechs industry in Oceania. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 4% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 57% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Reported Earnings • May 26
Full year 2023 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Full year 2023 results: NZ$0.033 loss per share (further deteriorated from NZ$0.026 loss in FY 2022). Revenue: NZ$23.8m (up 81% from FY 2022). Net loss: NZ$27.0m (loss widened 36% from FY 2022). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 3.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 3.5%. Revenue is forecast to grow 38% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 12% growth forecast for the Biotechs industry in Oceania. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 4% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 57% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Breakeven Date Change • May 26
Forecast to breakeven in 2026 The 4 analysts covering Pacific Edge expect the company to break even for the first time. New consensus forecast suggests the company will make a profit of NZ$2.90m in 2026. Average annual earnings growth of 24% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule. Announcement • Dec 14
Pacific Edge Announces the Acceptance for Publication of New Clinical Evidence That Shows Significant Improvements in the Performance of its Genomic Diagnostic Cxbladder Tests Pacific Edge announced the acceptance for publication of new clinical evidence that shows significant improvements in the performance of its genomic diagnostic Cxbladder tests. These performance improvements were achieved by the addition of DNA biomarkers to Cxbladder Triage (CxbT) and Cxbladder Detect (CxbD), Pacific Edge's products for hematuria evaluation. Pacific Edge also announced its intent to focus further clinical evidence generation efforts on the enhanced test, Cxbladder Detect+ (CxbD+), extending Pacific Edge's first mover advantage in providing best-in-class diagnostic tools for the detection and management of bladder cancer. The results of the study are to be published in the prestigious American Urological Association (AUA) Journal of Urology. The study enrolled 804 patients (344 from the US and 460 from Singapore), and the data shows an improvement in all performance characteristics over the existing versions of CxbT and CxbD. Notably, CxbD+ delivered Sensitivity of 97% (+23% compared with CxbD), Specificity of 90% (+8%), Negative Predictive Value of 99.7% (+2.5%), Positive Predictive Value of 44% (+19%) and Rule-out Rate of 83% (+5%). CxbD+ was developed including a Southeast Asian patient population, further strengthening the evidence for genomic biomarker tests in genetically diverse populations, and specifically validating Cxbladder for use in Southeast Asia. Pacific Edge expects no impact to revenue from existing products - commercial Triage and Detect customers will only be transitioned to CxbD+ after reimbursement is established. The company will continue to explore whether DNA markers will have a similar impact on the performance of Cxbladder Monitor for recurrence of disease. Major Estimate Revision • Dec 01
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2023 has been updated. 2023 revenue forecast increased from NZ$19.5m to NZ$22.6m. EPS estimate reaffirmed at -NZ$0.03 per share. Biotechs industry in New Zealand expected to see average net income growth of 11% next year. Consensus price target down from NZ$0.61 to NZ$0.59. Share price fell 8.2% to NZ$0.45 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Nov 26
First half 2023 earnings released: NZ$0.013 loss per share (vs NZ$0.012 loss in 1H 2022) First half 2023 results: NZ$0.013 loss per share (further deteriorated from NZ$0.012 loss in 1H 2022). Revenue: NZ$9.47m (up 55% from 1H 2022). Net loss: NZ$10.6m (loss widened 18% from 1H 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 48% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 13% growth forecast for the Biotechs industry in Oceania. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 9% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 52% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Price Target Changed • Nov 17
Price target decreased to NZ$0.61 Down from NZ$0.72, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 24% above last closing price of NZ$0.49. Stock is down 64% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of NZ$0.03 next year compared to a net loss per share of NZ$0.026 last year. Price Target Changed • Aug 06
Price target decreased to NZ$0.72 Down from NZ$0.91, the current price target is an average from 4 analysts. New target price is 38% above last closing price of NZ$0.52. Stock is down 57% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of NZ$0.03 next year compared to a net loss per share of NZ$0.026 last year. Announcement • Jul 28
Pacific Edge Limited Appoints Darrell Morgan as Chief Operating Officer Pacific Edge Limited announced the appointment of Darrell Morgan as Chief Operating Officer. Darrell has extensive experience in senior leadership and executive roles in large, mid-sized and virtual pharmaceutical companies in the UK, Europe and New Zealand. He has more than 37 years' experience in pharmaceutical R&D, immunodiagnostics and device development for drug delivery across human and animal health, in R&D, technical operations and customer-facing roles. As Chief Operating Officer, Darrell will be a key leader in the Dunedin office, and responsible for Pacific Edge's global laboratory operations, manufacturing, logistics, inventory management, the quality and regulatory compliance functions and operationalizing people and culture initiatives. He will have a focus on project management, people and culture, and operational excellence to optimize effectiveness, efficiency and on time delivery of products and services. Darrell will join Pacific Edge on 3 October 2022 and report to Chief Executive Dr. Peter Meintjes as a member of the C-Suite team. He will be based in Dunedin. Since 2013, Darrell has been a senior leader with animal health company Argenta Research where his roles have included Global Head of Pharmaceutical Sciences, VP Customer Relationships - Pharmaceutical Sciences, and Product Development Director - Technical Operations. Prior to Argenta Research, he worked for global biopharmaceutical company UCB in the UK for eight years in senior roles with a focus on sterile drug product and medical device development. Darrell is a chartered biologist, with post graduate diplomas in industrial pharmaceutical sciences and management, people and change. Announcement • Jul 23
Pacific Edge Limited to Report First Half, 2023 Results on Nov 26, 2022 Pacific Edge Limited announced that they will report first half, 2023 results on Nov 26, 2022 Major Estimate Revision • Jun 01
Consensus revenue estimates fall by 27% The consensus outlook for revenues in 2023 has deteriorated. 2023 revenue forecast decreased from NZ$25.1m to NZ$18.4m. Forecast losses increased from -NZ$0.02 to -NZ$0.03 per share. Biotechs industry in New Zealand expected to see average net income growth of 9.8% next year. Consensus price target down from NZ$1.11 to NZ$1.02. Share price was steady at NZ$0.83 over the past week. Buying Opportunity • May 30
Now 26% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 28%. The fair value is estimated to be NZ$0.93, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 40% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 19%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 43% per annum. Earnings is also forecast to grow by 6.3% per annum over the same time period. Reported Earnings • May 27
Full year 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2022 results: NZ$0.026 loss per share (down from NZ$0.02 loss in FY 2021). Revenue: NZ$13.7m (up 53% from FY 2021). Net loss: NZ$19.8m (loss widened 39% from FY 2021). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 2.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 32%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 60%, compared to a 71% growth forecast for the pharmaceuticals industry in New Zealand. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 19% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 57% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Price Target Changed • May 13
Price target decreased to NZ$1.11 Down from NZ$1.22, the current price target is an average from 4 analysts. New target price is 41% above last closing price of NZ$0.79. Stock is down 29% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of NZ$0.02 next year compared to a net loss per share of NZ$0.02 last year. Announcement • May 12
Pacific Edge Limited Announces It Is Advancing Its Clinical Evidence Generation Program with Lobster nPacific Edge Limited announced it is advancing its clinical evidence generation program with LOBSTER - a clinical study focused on demonstrating the clinical utility of Cxbladder Monitor for surveillance of recurrent urothelial cancer against the current American Urological Association (AUA) standard of care targeting existing guidelines language for greater inclusion of Cxbladder.Pacific Edge has contracted two sites, has initiated one site to date, and expects to enrol the first patient in LOBSTER this quarter. Cxbladder Monitor is a urine-based gene expression biomarker test for the surveillance of recurrent disease in bladder cancer patients. International peer reviewed publications1,2,3 have already shown the test's success in identifying those patients with a prior history of urothelial cancer that have a low probability of disease recurrence. By identifying these patients, healthcare providers are able to introduce a significant change in clinical practice, enabling all patients who test negative, to safely undergo cystoscopies at longer intervals than submitting to a cystoscopy at every visit, the AUA's current standard of care.This outcome significantly reduces the burden of invasive and expensive cystoscopic evaluations; spares patients the potential risks, discomfort and anxiety from cystoscopy, without compromising detection rates. It can also free up resources to be focused on patients most in need and facilitate compliance with cancer surveillance and management regimes. Board Change • Apr 27
Insufficient new directors No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 10 experienced directors. 2 highly experienced directors. Independent Director Sarah Park was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2018. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Insufficient board refreshment. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 07
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 losses forecast to reduce from -NZ$0.03 to -NZ$0.02 per share. Revenue forecast unchanged from NZ$13.4m at last update. Biotechs industry in New Zealand expected to see average net income growth of 11% next year. Consensus price target down from NZ$1.22 to NZ$1.15. Share price rose 4.2% to NZ$1.00 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Mar 21
Price target decreased to NZ$1.32 Down from NZ$1.53, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 42% above last closing price of NZ$0.93. Stock is down 7.0% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of NZ$0.024 next year compared to a net loss per share of NZ$0.02 last year. Board Change • Jan 02
Insufficient new directors No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 10 experienced directors. 2 highly experienced directors. Independent Director Sarah Park was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2018. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Insufficient board refreshment. Major Estimate Revision • Dec 02
Consensus revenue estimates fall to NZ$12.9m The consensus outlook for revenues in 2022 has deteriorated. 2022 revenue forecast decreased from NZ$15.4m to NZ$12.9m. Forecast losses increased from -NZ$0.021 to -NZ$0.024 per share. Biotechs industry in New Zealand expected to see average net income growth of 24% next year. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at NZ$1.50. Share price fell 3.8% to NZ$1.25 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Nov 27
First half 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations First half 2022 results: NZ$0.012 loss per share (down from NZ$0.01 loss in 1H 2021). Revenue: NZ$6.13m (up 71% from 1H 2021). Net loss: NZ$8.99m (loss widened 27% from 1H 2021). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 3.6%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 2.9%. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 2.9%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 85%, compared to a 176% growth forecast for the industry in New Zealand. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 24% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 52% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Breakeven Date Change • Nov 24
No longer forecast to breakeven The 2 analysts covering Pacific Edge no longer expect the company to break even during the foreseeable future. The company was expected to make a profit of NZ$3.62m in 2023. New consensus forecast suggests the company will make a loss of NZ$1.85m in 2024. Recent Insider Transactions Derivative • Oct 06
CEO, MD & Executive Director exercised options to buy NZ$478k worth of stock. On the 5th of October, David Darling exercised 750.00k options at around NZ$0.80, then sold 413.23k of them at NZ$1.43 each and kept the remainder. Since December 2020, David's direct individual holding has decreased from 350.53k shares to 122.36k. Company insiders have collectively sold NZ$240k more than they bought, via options and on-market transactions in the last 12 months. Major Estimate Revision • Jul 31
Consensus EPS estimates fall to -NZ$0.014 The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2022 has deteriorated. 2022 revenue forecast decreased from NZ$21.7m to NZ$20.2m. Losses expected to increase from -NZ$0.0086 to -NZ$0.014. Biotechs industry in New Zealand expected to see average net income growth of 20% next year. Consensus price target of NZ$1.50 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at NZ$1.24 over the past week. Reported Earnings • May 29
Full year 2021 earnings released: NZ$0.02 loss per share (vs NZ$0.032 loss in FY 2020) The company reported a solid full year result with reduced losses, improved revenues and improved control over expenses. Full year 2021 results: Revenue: NZ$10.4m (up 111% from FY 2020). Net loss: NZ$14.2m (loss narrowed 25% from FY 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 24% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 65% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Recent Insider Transactions • Apr 30
Insider recently sold NZ$130k worth of stock On the 28th of April, Eli Darling sold around 228k shares on-market at roughly NZ$0.57 per share. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have been net sellers, collectively disposing of NZ$504k more than they bought in the last 12 months. Recent Insider Transactions • Mar 21
Insider recently sold NZ$120k worth of stock On the 19th of March, Eli Darling sold around 114k shares on-market at roughly NZ$1.05 per share. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have been net sellers, collectively disposing of NZ$374k more than they bought in the last 12 months. Major Estimate Revision • Jan 26
Analysts update estimates The company's losses in 2021 are expected to worsen with analysts lowering their consensus EPS forecasts from -NZ$0.015 to -NZ$0.019. Revenue estimate was reaffirmed at NZ$9.74m. The Biotechs industry in New Zealand is expected to see an average net income growth of 30% next year. The consensus price target of NZ$1.50 was unchanged from the last update. Share price stayed mostly flat at NZ$1.06 over the past week. Announcement • Jan 15
Pacific Edge Limited, Annual General Meeting, Jul 29, 2021 Pacific Edge Limited, Annual General Meeting, Jul 29, 2021. Announcement • Jan 14
Pacific Edge Limited to Report First Half, 2022 Results on Nov 26, 2021 Pacific Edge Limited announced that they will report first half, 2022 results on Nov 26, 2021 Is New 90 Day High Low • Dec 18
New 90-day high: NZ$1.08 The company is up 69% from its price of NZ$0.64 on 18 September 2020. The New Zealander market is up 12% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Biotechs industry, which is up 2.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is per share.