There wouldn't be many who think PGG Wrightson Limited's (NZSE:PGW) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 14.5x is worth a mention when the median P/E in New Zealand is similar at about 15x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/E.
Recent times haven't been advantageous for PGG Wrightson as its earnings have been falling quicker than most other companies. One possibility is that the P/E is moderate because investors think the company's earnings trend will eventually fall in line with most others in the market. If you still like the company, you'd want its earnings trajectory to turn around before making any decisions. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.
See our latest analysis for PGG Wrightson
Does Growth Match The P/E?
PGG Wrightson's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the market.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 60%. This means it has also seen a slide in earnings over the longer-term as EPS is down 17% in total over the last three years. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the only analyst covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 4.2% per annum over the next three years. With the market predicted to deliver 19% growth per year, the company is positioned for a weaker earnings result.
In light of this, it's curious that PGG Wrightson's P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.
The Bottom Line On PGG Wrightson's P/E
Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.
Our examination of PGG Wrightson's analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook isn't impacting its P/E as much as we would have predicted. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/E lower. Unless these conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for PGG Wrightson you should be aware of, and 1 of them is potentially serious.
If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on PGG Wrightson, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
About NZSE:PGW
PGG Wrightson
Provides goods and services for agricultural and horticultural sectors in New Zealand.
Adequate balance sheet with moderate growth potential.
