Stolt-Nielsen Limited Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year

There's been a notable change in appetite for Stolt-Nielsen Limited (OB:SNI) shares in the week since its quarterly report, with the stock down 19% to kr203. Revenues of US$676m fell slightly short of expectations, but earnings were a definite bright spot, with statutory per-share profits of US$2.83 an impressive 65% ahead of estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the four analysts covering Stolt-Nielsen provided consensus estimates of US$2.71b revenue in 2025, which would reflect a discernible 5.4% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to plunge 24% to US$6.26 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$2.86b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.99 in 2025. If anything, the analysts look to have become slightly more optimistic overall; while they decreased their revenue forecasts, EPS predictions increased and ultimately earnings are more important.

See our latest analysis for Stolt-Nielsen

There's been no real change to the average price target of kr422, with the lower revenue and higher earnings forecasts not expected to meaningfully impact the company's valuation over a longer timeframe. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Stolt-Nielsen, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at kr490 and the most bearish at kr351 per share. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 7.1% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 9.6% over the last five years. Yet aggregate analyst estimates for other companies in the industry suggest that industry revenues are forecast to decline 2.0% per year. So it's pretty clear that Stolt-Nielsen's revenues are expected to shrink faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Stolt-Nielsen following these results. Unfortunately they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our analysts estimates suggest that Stolt-Nielsen is still expected to perform worse than the wider industry. Still, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Stolt-Nielsen analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for Stolt-Nielsen (of which 2 are concerning!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.