Atea ASA Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Last week, you might have seen that Atea ASA (OB:ATEA) released its annual result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.4% to kr136 in the past week. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at kr35b, although statutory earnings per share came in 11% below what the analysts expected, at kr6.87 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Atea

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Atea's four analysts is for revenues of kr37.4b in 2025. This reflects a meaningful 8.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 39% to kr9.61. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of kr38.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr9.77 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of kr151, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Atea, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at kr170 and the most bearish at kr133 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Atea's past performance and to peers in the same industry. For example, we noticed that Atea's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 8.2% growth to the end of 2025 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 2.1% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 7.2% annually. So while Atea's revenues are expected to improve, it seems that it is expected to grow at about the same rate as the overall industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Atea going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Atea that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.