Norsk Hydro ASA (OB:NHY) Stock's Been Sliding But Fundamentals Look Decent: Will The Market Correct The Share Price In The Future?

It is hard to get excited after looking at Norsk Hydro's (OB:NHY) recent performance, when its stock has declined 14% over the past month. But if you pay close attention, you might find that its key financial indicators look quite decent, which could mean that the stock could potentially rise in the long-term given how markets usually reward more resilient long-term fundamentals. In this article, we decided to focus on Norsk Hydro's ROE.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.

Check out our latest analysis for Norsk Hydro

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Norsk Hydro is:

5.3% = kr5.7b ÷ kr108b (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2023).

The 'return' is the income the business earned over the last year. That means that for every NOK1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated NOK0.05 in profit.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

Norsk Hydro's Earnings Growth And 5.3% ROE

When you first look at it, Norsk Hydro's ROE doesn't look that attractive. Next, when compared to the average industry ROE of 10%, the company's ROE leaves us feeling even less enthusiastic. However, we we're pleasantly surprised to see that Norsk Hydro grew its net income at a significant rate of 45% in the last five years. We reckon that there could be other factors at play here. For example, it is possible that the company's management has made some good strategic decisions, or that the company has a low payout ratio.

As a next step, we compared Norsk Hydro's net income growth with the industry, and pleasingly, we found that the growth seen by the company is higher than the average industry growth of 24%.

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Norsk Hydro is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is Norsk Hydro Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

Norsk Hydro has a three-year median payout ratio of 43% (where it is retaining 57% of its income) which is not too low or not too high. This suggests that its dividend is well covered, and given the high growth we discussed above, it looks like Norsk Hydro is reinvesting its earnings efficiently.

Moreover, Norsk Hydro is determined to keep sharing its profits with shareholders which we infer from its long history of paying a dividend for at least ten years. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company's future payout ratio is expected to rise to 62% over the next three years. Still, forecasts suggest that Norsk Hydro's future ROE will rise to 8.5% even though the the company's payout ratio is expected to rise. We presume that there could some other characteristics of the business that could be driving the anticipated growth in the company's ROE.

Summary

In total, it does look like Norsk Hydro has some positive aspects to its business. Even in spite of the low rate of return, the company has posted impressive earnings growth as a result of reinvesting heavily into its business. Having said that, the company's earnings growth is expected to slow down, as forecasted in the current analyst estimates. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.