David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We can see that Zalaris ASA (OB:ZAL) does use debt in its business. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
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How Much Debt Does Zalaris Carry?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of June 2023 Zalaris had kr469.9m of debt, an increase on kr371.2m, over one year. However, it does have kr112.5m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about kr357.4m.
How Strong Is Zalaris' Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Zalaris had liabilities of kr347.1m falling due within a year, and liabilities of kr527.9m due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had kr112.5m in cash and kr289.1m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling kr473.4m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since Zalaris has a market capitalization of kr902.8m, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
Zalaris shareholders face the double whammy of a high net debt to EBITDA ratio (6.1), and fairly weak interest coverage, since EBIT is just 1.4 times the interest expense. The debt burden here is substantial. The silver lining is that Zalaris grew its EBIT by 111% last year, which nourishing like the idealism of youth. If it can keep walking that path it will be in a position to shed its debt with relative ease. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is Zalaris's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the last three years, Zalaris recorded negative free cash flow, in total. Debt is far more risky for companies with unreliable free cash flow, so shareholders should be hoping that the past expenditure will produce free cash flow in the future.
Our View
To be frank both Zalaris's interest cover and its track record of managing its debt, based on its EBITDA, make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But at least it's pretty decent at growing its EBIT; that's encouraging. Looking at the balance sheet and taking into account all these factors, we do believe that debt is making Zalaris stock a bit risky. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but we'd generally feel more comfortable with less leverage. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for Zalaris you should be aware of, and 2 of them can't be ignored.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About OB:ZAL
Adequate balance sheet and slightly overvalued.