New Risk • Feb 07
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of Norwegian stocks, typically moving 10% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Less than 1 year of cash runway based on free cash flow trend (-kr390m free cash flow). Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (10% average weekly change). Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year (83% increase in shares outstanding). New Risk • Jan 25
New major risk - Shareholder dilution The company's shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year. Increase in shares outstanding: 83% This is considered a major risk. Shareholder dilution occurs when there is an increase in the number of shares on issue that is not proportionally distributed between all shareholders. Often due to the company raising equity capital or some options being converted into stock. All else being equal, if there are more shares outstanding then each existing share will be entitled to a lower proportion of the company's total earnings, thus reducing earnings per share (EPS). While dilution might not always result in lower EPS (like if the company is using the capital to fund an EPS accretive acquisition) in a lot cases it does, along with lower dividends per share and less voting power at shareholder meetings. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Less than 1 year of cash runway based on free cash flow trend (-kr390m free cash flow). Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year (83% increase in shares outstanding). Minor Risk Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (11% average weekly change). Reported Earnings • Nov 17
Third quarter 2023 earnings released: kr0.70 loss per share (vs kr0.50 loss in 3Q 2022) Third quarter 2023 results: kr0.70 loss per share (further deteriorated from kr0.50 loss in 3Q 2022). Net loss: kr112.0m (loss widened 49% from 3Q 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 107% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 46% growth forecast for the Commercial Services industry in Norway. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 14% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 54% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Announcement • Sep 01
Quantafuel AS (OB:QFUEL) acquired 50% stake in Polynate AS. Quantafuel AS (OB:QFUEL) exercised this option to acquire 50% stake in Polynate AS on August 31, 2023. With the transaction concluded, the composition of Polynate’s Board of Directors will reflect the ownership of Quantafuel, with Dominic Howson and Chris Lach representing Quantafuel, Kjetil Vikingstad and Bernt-Olof Morgan Olausson representing Geminor, and with Håkon Thomas Olsen serving as the Chairman of Polynate's board.
Quantafuel AS (OB:QFUEL) completed the acquisition of 50% stake in Polynate AS on August 31, 2023. Reported Earnings • Sep 01
Second quarter 2023 earnings released: kr0.60 loss per share (vs kr0.40 loss in 2Q 2022) Second quarter 2023 results: kr0.60 loss per share (further deteriorated from kr0.40 loss in 2Q 2022). Net loss: kr99.2m (loss widened 42% from 2Q 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 99% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 39% growth forecast for the Commercial Services industry in Norway. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 15% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 54% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Announcement • Aug 24
Quantafuel AS Announces CFO Changes In line with previous communication on 15 May 2023 regarding management changes, company announced that Jens Petter Broby will assume the position of Chief Financial Officer (CFO) at Quantafuel AS, effective from 1 September. Jens Petter Broby has been an integral part of the Quantafuel team since January 2019. As part of the transition, Christian Bekkevold Nilsen will provide support until the end of September. Quantafuel is grateful for Nilsen's contributions. Major Estimate Revision • Jul 25
Consensus estimates of losses per share improve by 25% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2023 has improved. 2023 revenue forecast increased from kr129.7m to kr135.0m. EPS estimate increased from -kr0.695 per share to -kr0.524 per share. Commercial Services industry in Norway expected to see average net income growth of 19% next year. Consensus price target of kr4.12 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at kr6.45 over the past week. Announcement • Jun 17
Quantafuel as Elects Omar Shafi Khan as Board Member Quantafuel AS at its EGM held on June 16, 2023 approved election of Omar Shafi Khan as new board member. Major Estimate Revision • May 25
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 48% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 expected loss increased from -kr0.514 to -kr0.763 per share. Revenue forecast of kr141.0m unchanged since last update. Commercial Services industry in Norway expected to see average net income growth of 19% next year. Consensus price target of kr5.98 unchanged from last update. Share price rose 2.7% to kr6.37 over the past week. Reported Earnings • May 14
First quarter 2023 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind First quarter 2023 results: kr0.20 loss per share (improved from kr0.50 loss in 1Q 2022). Net loss: kr38.6m (loss narrowed 45% from 1Q 2022). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 19%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 57%. Revenue is forecast to grow 102% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 40% growth forecast for the Commercial Services industry in Norway. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 10% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 32% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Recent Insider Transactions • Mar 03
Deputy CEO & Chief Commercial Officer recently bought kr60k worth of stock On the 1st of March, Christian Lach bought around 10k shares on-market at roughly kr6.01 per share. This transaction amounted to 74% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have collectively bought kr792k more in shares than they have sold in the last 12 months. Reported Earnings • Mar 01
Full year 2022 earnings released: kr1.90 loss per share (vs kr0.028 loss in FY 2021) Full year 2022 results: kr1.90 loss per share (further deteriorated from kr0.028 loss in FY 2021). Net loss: kr304.3m (loss widened kr300.4m from FY 2021). Revenue is forecast to grow 79% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.4% decline forecast for the Commercial Services industry in Norway. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 9% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 28% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Breakeven Date Change • Jan 01
Forecast to breakeven in 2025 The 4 analysts covering Quantafuel expect the company to break even for the first time. New consensus forecast suggests the company will make a profit of kr181.3m in 2025. Average annual earnings growth of 71% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule. Reported Earnings • Nov 17
Third quarter 2022 earnings: Revenues exceed analyst expectations Third quarter 2022 results: Net loss: kr75.0m (loss widened 244% from 3Q 2021). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 53%. Revenue is forecast to grow 89% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.0% decline forecast for the Commercial Services industry in Norway. Breakeven Date Change • Nov 16 The 4 analysts covering Quantafuel previously expected the company to break even in 2024. New consensus forecast suggests the company will make a profit of kr3.30m in 2024. Average annual earnings growth of 86% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule.
Board Change • Nov 16
Less than half of directors are independent Following the recent departure of a director, there are only 2 independent directors on the board. The company's board is composed of: 2 independent directors. 5 non-independent directors. Independent Chairman Gjerdseth Andersen was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2019. The company's minority of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Major Estimate Revision • Sep 07
Consensus revenue estimates fall by 41% The consensus outlook for revenues in 2022 has deteriorated. 2022 revenue forecast decreased from kr97.3m to kr57.6m. Forecast losses increased from -kr1.01 to -kr1.48 per share. Commercial Services industry in Norway expected to see average net income growth of 21% next year. Consensus price target down from kr13.25 to kr12.25. Share price fell 16% to kr10.32 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Sep 01
Second quarter 2022 earnings released: kr0.40 loss per share (vs kr0.07 loss in 2Q 2021) Second quarter 2022 results: kr0.40 loss per share (down from kr0.07 loss in 2Q 2021). Net loss: kr69.8m (loss widened kr60.8m from 2Q 2021). Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 604%, compared to a 46% growth forecast for the Commercial Services industry in Norway. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 10% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 2% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Board Change • Jun 16
Less than half of directors are independent Following the recent departure of a director, there are only 2 independent directors on the board. The company's board is composed of: 2 independent directors. 5 non-independent directors. Independent Chairman Gjerdseth Andersen was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2019. The company's minority of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jan 31
Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week After last week's 19% share price decline to kr20.64, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 92x. Average forward P/E is 16x in the Commercial Services industry in Europe. Total returns to shareholders of 275% over the past three years. Major Estimate Revision • Jan 26
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2021 has been updated. 2021 revenue forecast fell from kr146.9m to kr79.5m. EPS estimate increased from -kr0.47 to -kr0.05 per share. Commercial Services industry in Norway expected to see average net income growth of 28% next year. Consensus price target down from kr62.36 to kr57.00. Share price fell 4.0% to kr27.50 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Jan 07
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2021 has been updated. 2021 revenue forecast increased from kr88.4m to kr143.4m. EPS estimate unchanged from -kr0.46 at last update. Commercial Services industry in Norway expected to see average net income growth of 27% next year. Consensus price target of kr59.88 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at kr32.70 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Nov 12
Third quarter 2021 earnings released: kr0.20 loss per share (vs kr2.57 loss in 3Q 2020) Third quarter 2021 results: Net loss: kr21.8m (loss narrowed 94% from 3Q 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 15% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 58% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Recent Insider Transactions • Sep 10
Deputy Chair of the Board recently bought kr712k worth of stock On the 9th of September, Svein Spieler bought around 30k shares on-market at roughly kr23.75 per share. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. This was Svein's only on-market trade for the last 12 months. Recent Insider Transactions • Jul 21
Independent Director recently bought kr306k worth of stock On the 19th of July, Thorleif Enger bought around 10k shares on-market at roughly kr30.61 per share. In the last 3 months, there was an even bigger purchase from another insider worth kr472k. Insiders have collectively bought kr1.4m more in shares than they have sold in the last 12 months. Recent Insider Transactions • Jul 07
Director recently bought kr50k worth of stock On the 5th of July, Wenche Teigland bought around 1k shares on-market at roughly kr35.10 per share. In the last 3 months, there was an even bigger purchase from another insider worth kr472k. Insiders have collectively bought kr870k more in shares than they have sold in the last 12 months. Executive Departure • Jun 09
Chairperson of the Board Svein Spieler has left the company On the 28th of May, Svein Spieler's tenure as Chairperson of the Board ended after 2.8 years in the role. As of March 2021, Svein still personally held 1.58m shares (kr20m worth at the time). Svein is the only executive to leave the company over the last 12 months. The current median tenure of the management team is less than a year, which is considered inexperienced in the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Breakeven Date Change • May 20
Forecast breakeven moved forward to 2021 The 3 analysts covering Quantafuel previously expected the company to break even in 2022. New consensus forecast suggests the company will make a profit of kr75.3m in 2021. Earnings growth of 81% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule. Recent Insider Transactions • May 15
Deputy CEO & Chief Commercial Officer recently bought kr472k worth of stock On the 14th of May, Christian Lach bought around 14k shares on-market at roughly kr34.98 per share. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have collectively bought kr576k more in shares than they have sold in the last 12 months. Major Estimate Revision • May 11
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2021 has been updated. 2021 revenue forecast increased from kr80.2m to kr86.0m. Forecast EPS reduced from -kr0.57 to -kr0.69 per share. Commercial Services industry in Norway expected to see average net income growth of 23% next year. Consensus price target up from kr91.36 to kr98.12. Share price fell 21% to kr28.60 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Feb 24
Full year 2020 earnings released: kr3.68 loss per share (vs kr1.58 loss in FY 2019) Full year 2020 results: Net loss: kr495.5m (loss widened 226% from FY 2019). Analyst Estimate Surprise Post Earnings • Feb 24
Revenue misses expectations Revenue missed analyst estimates by 35%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 1,555%, compared to a 229% growth forecast for the Commercial Services industry in Norway. Is New 90 Day High Low • Jan 08
New 90-day high: kr65.30 The company is up 6.0% from its price of kr61.60 on 09 October 2020. The Norwegian market is up 14% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. However, its price trend is similar to the Commercial Services industry, which is also up 6.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is kr231 per share.