Does Havyard Group ASA’s (OB:HYARD) Past Performance Indicate A Weaker Future?

Examining Havyard Group ASA’s (OB:HYARD) past track record of performance is a useful exercise for investors. It allows us to reflect on whether the company has met or exceed expectations, which is a powerful signal for future performance. Below, I will assess HYARD’s latest performance announced on 31 December 2017 and weight these figures against its longer term trend and industry movements. See our latest analysis for Havyard Group

Did HYARD perform worse than its track record and industry?

I like to use the ‘latest twelve-month’ data, which either annualizes the most recent 6-month earnings update, or in some cases, the most recent annual report is already the latest available financial data. This technique allows me to analyze many different companies on a more comparable basis, using the latest information. For Havyard Group, its latest earnings (trailing twelve month) is -ØRE63.27M, which, in comparison to the prior year’s figure, has become more negative. Given that these values are somewhat myopic, I’ve computed an annualized five-year figure for Havyard Group’s net income, which stands at -ØRE6.54M. This doesn’t seem to paint a better picture, as earnings seem to have consistently been getting more and more negative over time.

We can further assess Havyard Group’s loss by looking at what the industry has been experiencing over the past few years. Each year, for the past half a decade Havyard Group has seen an annual decline in revenue of -4.75%, on average. This adverse movement is a driver of the company’s inability to reach breakeven. Has the entire industry experienced this headwind? Looking at growth from a sector-level, the NO machinery industry has been growing average earnings growth of 73.92% in the past twelve months, and a solid 33.65% over the past five years. This shows that any uplift the industry is benefiting from, Havyard Group has not been able to reap as much as its industry peers.

What does this mean?

Though Havyard Group’s past data is helpful, it is only one aspect of my investment thesis. Companies that incur net loss is always hard to forecast what will occur going forward, and when. The most valuable step is to assess company-specific issues Havyard Group may be facing and whether management guidance has dependably been met in the past. You should continue to research Havyard Group to get a more holistic view of the stock by looking at:

• 1. Financial Health: Is HYARD’s operations financially sustainable? Balance sheets can be hard to analyze, which is why we’ve done it for you. Check out our financial health checks here.
• 2. Valuation: What is HYARD worth today? Is the stock undervalued, even when its growth outlook is factored into its intrinsic value? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether HYARD is currently mispriced by the market.
• 3. Other High-Performing Stocks: Are there other stocks that provide better prospects with proven track records? Explore our free list of these great stocks here.

NB: Figures in this article are calculated using data from the trailing twelve months from 31 December 2017. This may not be consistent with full year annual report figures.