Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of PostNL N.V. (AMS:PNL)

Key Insights

• PostNL's estimated fair value is €1.98 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• PostNL's €2.09 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate
• The €1.94 analyst price target for PNL is 2.0% less than our estimate of fair value

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of PostNL N.V. (AMS:PNL) by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for PostNL

Crunching The Numbers

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF (€, Millions)	€41.9m	€62.9m	€66.9m	€69.7m	€71.8m	€73.5m	€74.8m	€75.9m	€76.7m	€77.5m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x2	Analyst x2	Analyst x1	Est @ 4.18%	Est @ 3.09%	Est @ 2.32%	Est @ 1.78%	Est @ 1.41%	Est @ 1.14%	Est @ 0.96%
Present Value (€, Millions) Discounted @ 7.7%	€38.9	€54.2	€53.6	€51.8	€49.6	€47.1	€44.5	€41.9	€39.4	€36.9

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = €458m

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 0.5%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.7%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = €77m× (1 + 0.5%) ÷ (7.7%– 0.5%) = €1.1b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= €1.1b÷ ( 1 + 7.7%)¹⁰= €519m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is €977m. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of €2.1, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

The Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at PostNL as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.432. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for PostNL

Next Steps:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For PostNL, we've compiled three essential aspects you should further examine:

1. Risks: Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for PostNL you should be aware of, and 1 of them makes us a bit uncomfortable.
2. Future Earnings: How does PNL's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the ENXTAM every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.