ASM International NV Just Missed Earnings; Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

ASM International NV (AMS:ASM) last week reported its latest first-quarter results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. Revenues came in at €839m, in line with estimates, while ASM International reported a statutory loss of €0.59 per share, well short of prior analyst forecasts for a profit. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

We've discovered 1 warning sign about ASM International. View them for free.

After the latest results, the 21 analysts covering ASM International are now predicting revenues of €3.42b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a meaningful 9.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 47% to €14.48. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €3.53b and earnings per share (EPS) of €16.84 in 2025. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a substantial drop in earnings per share numbers.

View our latest analysis for ASM International

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the €622 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic ASM International analyst has a price target of €760 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €450. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that ASM International's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 13% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 18% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 9.5% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while ASM International's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €622, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple ASM International analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for ASM International that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.