ASM International NV Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Investors in ASM International NV (AMS:ASM) had a good week, as its shares rose 5.0% to close at €545 following the release of its third-quarter results. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at €2.59, some 23% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at €779m. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on ASM International after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for ASM International

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from ASM International's 19 analysts is for revenues of €3.57b in 2025. This reflects a huge 30% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 56% to €17.54. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €3.63b and earnings per share (EPS) of €18.29 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at €704, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic ASM International analyst has a price target of €1,000 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €540. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that ASM International's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 23% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 19% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 13% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect ASM International to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for ASM International. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for ASM International going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for ASM International you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.