ArcelorMittal Valuation

Is MT undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MT when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MT (€23.84) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€47.69)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MT is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MT?

Key metric: As MT is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for MT. This is calculated by dividing MT's market cap by their current revenue.
What is MT's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio0.3x
SalesUS$62.28b
Market CapUS$19.81b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does MT's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for MT vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average1x
APAM Aperam
0.3x6.1%€2.0b
AKZA Akzo Nobel
0.9x3.0%€9.4b
DSFIR DSM-Firmenich
2.2x4.1%€27.6b
600019 Baoshan Iron & Steel
0.4x0.4%CN¥143.2b
MT ArcelorMittal
0.3x1.9%€18.7b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: MT is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the peer average (1x).


Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does MT's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Metals and Mining Industry?

35 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
MT 0.3xIndustry Avg. 0.7xNo. of Companies35PS00.81.62.43.24+
35 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: MT is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the European Metals and Mining industry average (0.7x).


Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MT's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MT PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.3x
Fair PS Ratio0.5x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: MT is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.5x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MT forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€23.84
€29.88
+25.3%
15.7%€40.39€23.55n/a13
Nov ’25€22.68
€28.95
+27.6%
16.2%€38.39€21.22n/a13
Oct ’25€23.53
€29.47
+25.3%
13.7%€38.13€23.48n/a13
Sep ’25€21.17
€29.01
+37.0%
14.1%€37.97€23.39n/a13
Aug ’25€19.99
€29.77
+48.9%
13.9%€38.40€24.09n/a13
Jul ’25€21.29
€31.44
+47.7%
13.1%€40.54€26.15n/a13
Jun ’25€24.16
€31.54
+30.5%
13.5%€39.99€25.79n/a13
May ’25€23.59
€31.96
+35.5%
13.3%€39.89€25.92n/a12
Apr ’25€25.46
€31.92
+25.4%
13.4%€40.38€27.20n/a13
Mar ’25€24.08
€31.78
+32.0%
13.1%€39.94€27.22n/a13
Feb ’25€25.56
€31.41
+22.9%
13.3%€40.00€25.18n/a13
Jan ’25€25.68
€31.02
+20.8%
14.1%€40.26€24.62n/a13
Dec ’24€23.48
€29.41
+25.3%
18.5%€40.01€19.50€23.8412
Nov ’24€20.73
€30.97
+49.4%
18.8%€40.33€20.05€22.6812
Oct ’24€23.78
€33.46
+40.7%
14.4%€41.45€23.84€23.5312
Sep ’24€25.10
€33.10
+31.9%
14.0%€40.09€23.53€21.1712
Aug ’24€25.79
€32.79
+27.1%
14.1%€39.98€23.55€19.9912
Jul ’24€24.93
€33.79
+35.6%
13.5%€39.91€25.24€21.2912
Jun ’24€23.82
€35.22
+47.9%
16.8%€49.56€25.58€24.1613
May ’24€25.71
€34.42
+33.9%
16.8%€48.57€24.92€23.5913
Apr ’24€27.87
€34.75
+24.7%
15.8%€47.71€25.00€25.4613
Mar ’24€29.09
€35.72
+22.8%
16.8%€48.80€26.06€24.0812
Feb ’24€28.32
€34.12
+20.5%
18.0%€48.20€24.28€25.5612
Jan ’24€24.58
€32.49
+32.2%
20.5%€46.14€21.07€25.6814
Dec ’23€25.46
€32.77
+28.7%
21.0%€46.83€21.38€23.4814

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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