Improved Earnings Required Before Aegon N.V. (AMS:AGN) Shares Find Their Feet

By
Simply Wall St
Published
August 11, 2020
ENXTAM:AGN

When close to half the companies in the Netherlands have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") above 20x, you may consider Aegon N.V. (AMS:AGN) as a highly attractive investment with its 5.1x P/E ratio. However, the P/E might be quite low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

Recent times have been pleasing for Aegon as its earnings have risen in spite of the market's earnings going into reverse. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to degrade substantially, possibly more than the market, which has repressed the P/E. If not, then existing shareholders have reason to be quite optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

View our latest analysis for Aegon

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ENXTAM:AGN Price Based on Past Earnings August 11th 2020
If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on Aegon.

Does Growth Match The Low P/E?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as depressed as Aegon's is when the company's growth is on track to lag the market decidedly.

If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 92%. Pleasingly, EPS has also lifted 280% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been superb for the company.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 4.4% per annum as estimated by the eleven analysts watching the company. With the market predicted to deliver 19% growth per year, the company is positioned for a weaker earnings result.

With this information, we can see why Aegon is trading at a P/E lower than the market. Apparently many shareholders weren't comfortable holding on while the company is potentially eyeing a less prosperous future.

The Key Takeaway

Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

We've established that Aegon maintains its low P/E on the weakness of its forecast growth being lower than the wider market, as expected. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. Unless these conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 4 warning signs for Aegon you should be aware of, and 1 of them is a bit unpleasant.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Aegon, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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