Despite the downward trend in earnings at Arcadis (AMS:ARCAD) the stock rises 8.4%, bringing five-year gains to 276%

By
Simply Wall St
Published
February 18, 2022
ENXTAM:ARCAD
Source: Shutterstock

The worst result, after buying shares in a company (assuming no leverage), would be if you lose all the money you put in. But on the bright side, you can make far more than 100% on a really good stock. Long term Arcadis NV (AMS:ARCAD) shareholders would be well aware of this, since the stock is up 240% in five years. In more good news, the share price has risen 11% in thirty days.

Since the stock has added €291m to its market cap in the past week alone, let's see if underlying performance has been driving long-term returns.

View our latest analysis for Arcadis

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During five years of share price growth, Arcadis actually saw its EPS drop 18% per year.

This means it's unlikely the market is judging the company based on earnings growth. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

We doubt the modest 1.4% dividend yield is attracting many buyers to the stock. We are not particularly impressed by the annual compound revenue growth of 0.4% over five years. So it seems one might have to take closer look at earnings and revenue trends to see how they might influence the share price.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
ENXTAM:ARCAD Earnings and Revenue Growth February 18th 2022

Balance sheet strength is crucial. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on how its financial position has changed over time.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Arcadis, it has a TSR of 276% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Arcadis shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 52% over the last year. That's including the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 30%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Arcadis that you should be aware of.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on NL exchanges.

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