Analysts Are Updating Their Alfen N.V. (AMS:ALFEN) Estimates After Its Half-Year Results

Shareholders might have noticed that Alfen N.V. (AMS:ALFEN) filed its half-year result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 8.1% to €10.65 in the past week. The result was fairly weak overall, with revenues of €212m being 5.1% less than what the analysts had been modelling. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Following last week's earnings report, Alfen's nine analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be €452.5m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €455.6m and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.26 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a EPS estimates.

See our latest analysis for Alfen

There's been no real change to the consensus price target of €11.71, with Alfen seemingly executing in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Alfen analyst has a price target of €14.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €8.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Alfen shareholders.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.4% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 21% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 6.9% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Alfen's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Alfen. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Alfen's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €11.71, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Alfen analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We also provide an overview of the Alfen Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.