Guinness Nigeria Plc

NGSE:GUINNESS Stock Report

Market Cap: ₦142.4b

Guinness Nigeria Valuation

Is GUINNESS undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GUINNESS when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GUINNESS (NGN65) is trading below our estimate of fair value (NGN135.34)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GUINNESS is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GUINNESS?

Key metric: As GUINNESS is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for GUINNESS. This is calculated by dividing GUINNESS's market cap by their current revenue.
What is GUINNESS's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio0.4x
Sales₦365.84b
Market Cap₦142.37b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does GUINNESS's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for GUINNESS vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average1.1x
NB Nigerian Breweries
0.3x13.6%₦287.7b
CHAMPION Champion Breweries
1.9xn/a₦33.1b
INTBREW International Breweries
1.6x18.7%₦673.2b
UACN UAC of Nigeria
0.4xn/a₦67.9b
GUINNESS Guinness Nigeria
0.4x6.0%₦142.4b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: GUINNESS is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x) compared to the peer average (1.1x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does GUINNESS's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the African Beverage Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
GUINNESS 0.4xIndustry Avg. 1.7xNo. of Companies3PS00.81.62.43.24+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: GUINNESS is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x) compared to the Global Beverage industry average (1.7x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GUINNESS's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GUINNESS PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.4x
Fair PS Ratio0.4x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: GUINNESS is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst GUINNESS forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current₦65.00
₦69.01
+6.2%
12.2%₦76.07₦53.13n/a5
Nov ’25₦65.00
₦69.01
+6.2%
12.2%₦76.07₦53.13n/a5
Oct ’25₦65.00
₦69.87
+7.5%
12.9%₦77.81₦53.13n/a5
Sep ’25₦63.50
₦66.46
+4.7%
12.9%₦76.07₦53.13n/a5
Aug ’25₦61.00
₦70.33
+15.3%
20.5%₦95.41₦53.13n/a5
Jul ’25₦67.00
₦69.77
+4.1%
26.4%₦95.41₦53.13n/a3
Jun ’25₦49.55
₦69.77
+40.8%
26.4%₦95.41₦53.13n/a3
May ’25₦54.00
₦74.45
+37.9%
16.4%₦95.41₦60.77n/a5
Apr ’25₦49.60
₦75.74
+52.7%
14.5%₦95.41₦65.98n/a5
Mar ’25₦51.00
₦78.18
+53.3%
14.1%₦95.41₦67.21n/a4
Feb ’25₦63.70
₦78.00
+22.5%
14.4%₦95.41₦66.50n/a4
Jan ’25₦66.00
₦77.40
+17.3%
11.9%₦93.01₦66.50n/a5
Dec ’24₦67.90
₦77.40
+14.0%
11.9%₦93.01₦66.50n/a5
Nov ’24₦65.00
₦80.16
+23.3%
10.4%₦93.13₦70.10₦65.004
Oct ’24₦65.00
₦80.78
+24.3%
11.5%₦95.60₦70.10₦65.004
Sep ’24₦62.20
₦84.33
+35.6%
9.5%₦95.60₦77.40₦63.503
Aug ’24₦55.00
₦81.63
+48.4%
7.0%₦93.00₦77.40₦61.005
Jul ’24₦80.00
₦79.25
-0.9%
0.7%₦80.00₦78.52₦67.004
Jun ’24₦70.00
₦79.25
+13.2%
0.7%₦80.00₦78.52₦49.554
May ’24₦70.00
₦79.25
+13.2%
0.7%₦80.00₦78.52₦54.004
Apr ’24₦70.00
₦79.25
+13.2%
0.7%₦80.00₦78.52₦49.604
Mar ’24₦70.00
₦77.50
+10.7%
4.6%₦80.00₦70.50₦51.005
Feb ’24₦63.00
₦81.44
+29.3%
5.4%₦90.20₦78.52₦63.705
Jan ’24₦69.30
₦85.04
+22.7%
4.5%₦90.20₦80.00₦66.004
Dec ’23₦63.00
₦94.13
+49.4%
19.6%₦130.49₦80.00₦67.905
Nov ’23₦82.90
₦95.31
+15.0%
19.3%₦130.49₦80.00₦65.005

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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