Tiong Nam Logistics Holdings Berhad Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions

Tiong Nam Logistics Holdings Berhad (KLSE:TNLOGIS) came out with its full-year results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of RM600m were what the analysts expected, Tiong Nam Logistics Holdings Berhad surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of RM0.023 per share, an impressive 115% above what was forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Tiong Nam Logistics Holdings Berhad

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Tiong Nam Logistics Holdings Berhad's three analysts is for revenues of RM639.4m in 2022, which would reflect a satisfactory 6.5% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 26% to RM0.028. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of RM644.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of RM0.029 in 2022. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of RM1.03, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Tiong Nam Logistics Holdings Berhad at RM1.22 per share, while the most bearish prices it at RM0.93. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Tiong Nam Logistics Holdings Berhad is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that Tiong Nam Logistics Holdings Berhad's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 6.5% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2022 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 0.4% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to see revenue growth of 9.5% annually. It seems obvious that, while the future growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, Tiong Nam Logistics Holdings Berhad is expected to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - although our data does suggest that Tiong Nam Logistics Holdings Berhad's revenues are expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at RM1.03, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Tiong Nam Logistics Holdings Berhad analysts - going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Tiong Nam Logistics Holdings Berhad (at least 1 which shouldn't be ignored) , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

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