Divfex Berhad's (KLSE:DFX) 54% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

Divfex Berhad (KLSE:DFX) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 54% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 90% in the last year.

After such a large jump in price, Divfex Berhad's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 27.3x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in Malaysia, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 17x and even P/E's below 10x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

Divfex Berhad certainly has been doing a great job lately as it's been growing earnings at a really rapid pace. It seems that many are expecting the strong earnings performance to beat most other companies over the coming period, which has increased investors’ willingness to pay up for the stock. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

Check out our latest analysis for Divfex Berhad

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Divfex Berhad's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Does Growth Match The High P/E?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the market for P/E ratios like Divfex Berhad's to be considered reasonable.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 57% gain to the company's bottom line. However, the latest three year period hasn't been as great in aggregate as it didn't manage to provide any growth at all. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been overly satisfied with the unstable medium-term growth rates.

Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 17% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker based on recent medium-term annualised earnings results.

In light of this, it's alarming that Divfex Berhad's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

Shares in Divfex Berhad have built up some good momentum lately, which has really inflated its P/E. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

We've established that Divfex Berhad currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider market forecast. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance isn't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Divfex Berhad you should be aware of, and 1 of them is potentially serious.

If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com