Is There Now An Opportunity In Evergreen Fibreboard Berhad (KLSE:EVERGRN)?

While Evergreen Fibreboard Berhad (KLSE:EVERGRN) might not be the most widely known stock at the moment, it saw a decent share price growth in the teens level on the KLSE over the last few months. Less-covered, small caps sees more of an opportunity for mispricing due to the lack of information available to the public, which can be a good thing. So, could the stock still be trading at a low price relative to its actual value? Today I will analyse the most recent data on Evergreen Fibreboard Berhad’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.

View our latest analysis for Evergreen Fibreboard Berhad

What's The Opportunity In Evergreen Fibreboard Berhad?

The stock seems fairly valued at the moment according to my valuation model. It’s trading around 6.4% below my intrinsic value, which means if you buy Evergreen Fibreboard Berhad today, you’d be paying a fair price for it. And if you believe the company’s true value is MYR0.32, then there’s not much of an upside to gain from mispricing. So, is there another chance to buy low in the future? Given that Evergreen Fibreboard Berhad’s share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us an opportunity to buy later on. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.

What kind of growth will Evergreen Fibreboard Berhad generate?

Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Though in the case of Evergreen Fibreboard Berhad, it is expected to deliver a negative revenue growth of -2.8% over the next couple of years, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis. It appears that risk of future uncertainty is high, at least in the near term.

What This Means For You

Are you a shareholder? EVERGRN seems fairly priced right now, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to de-risk your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock optimal for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on the stock, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on EVERGRN for a while, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. The stock appears to be trading at fair value, which means there’s less benefit from mispricing. In addition to this, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven’t considered today, which can help gel your views on EVERGRN should the price fluctuate below its true value.

Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. Every company has risks, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Evergreen Fibreboard Berhad you should know about.

If you are no longer interested in Evergreen Fibreboard Berhad, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.