Stock Analysis

Investors one-year losses continue as Heineken Malaysia Berhad (KLSE:HEIM) dips a further 7.1% this week, earnings continue to decline

KLSE:HEIM
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The simplest way to benefit from a rising market is to buy an index fund. Active investors aim to buy stocks that vastly outperform the market - but in the process, they risk under-performance. That downside risk was realized by Heineken Malaysia Berhad (KLSE:HEIM) shareholders over the last year, as the share price declined 16%. That's well below the market return of 12%. At least the damage isn't so bad if you look at the last three years, since the stock is down 9.8% in that time. And the share price decline continued over the last week, dropping some 7.1%.

After losing 7.1% this past week, it's worth investigating the company's fundamentals to see what we can infer from past performance.

View our latest analysis for Heineken Malaysia Berhad

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Unhappily, Heineken Malaysia Berhad had to report a 2.9% decline in EPS over the last year. This reduction in EPS is not as bad as the 16% share price fall. This suggests the EPS fall has made some shareholders are more nervous about the business.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
KLSE:HEIM Earnings Per Share Growth February 26th 2024

This free interactive report on Heineken Malaysia Berhad's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Heineken Malaysia Berhad the TSR over the last 1 year was -11%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 12% in the last year, Heineken Malaysia Berhad shareholders lost 11% (even including dividends). Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 4%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Even so, be aware that Heineken Malaysia Berhad is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 2 of those shouldn't be ignored...

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Malaysian exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Heineken Malaysia Berhad might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.