Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Icon Offshore Berhad (KLSE:ICON)

Key Insights

• Icon Offshore Berhad's estimated fair value is RM0.55 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• With RM0.65 share price, Icon Offshore Berhad appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value
• When compared to theindustry average discount of -25%, Icon Offshore Berhad's competitors seem to be trading at a greater premium to fair value

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Icon Offshore Berhad (KLSE:ICON) as an investment opportunity by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for Icon Offshore Berhad

The Method

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF (MYR, Millions)	RM50.3m	RM54.0m	RM47.7m	RM44.4m	RM42.7m	RM42.0m	RM41.9m	RM42.4m	RM43.1m	RM44.1m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Est @ -11.56%	Est @ -7.02%	Est @ -3.85%	Est @ -1.63%	Est @ -0.08%	Est @ 1.01%	Est @ 1.77%	Est @ 2.31%
Present Value (MYR, Millions) Discounted @ 16%	RM43.2	RM39.9	RM30.3	RM24.2	RM20.0	RM16.9	RM14.5	RM12.6	RM11.0	RM9.7

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = RM222m

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (3.6%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 16%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = RM44m× (1 + 3.6%) ÷ (16%– 3.6%) = RM356m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= RM356m÷ ( 1 + 16%)¹⁰= RM78m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is RM300m. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of RM0.6, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

The Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Icon Offshore Berhad as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 16%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.881. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Icon Offshore Berhad, we've compiled three further aspects you should consider:

1. Risks: For instance, we've identified 5 warning signs for Icon Offshore Berhad (1 is a bit unpleasant) you should be aware of.
2. Future Earnings: How does ICON's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the KLSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.