Earnings Beat: Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

Last week, you might have seen that Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:VOLARA) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 9.0% to Mex$11.99 in the past week. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$786m were what the analysts expected, Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación. de surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$0.01 per share, an impressive 272% above what was forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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After the latest results, the 16 analysts covering Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación. de are now predicting revenues of US$3.35b in 2026. If met, this would reflect a notable 12% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 94% to US$0.0033. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$3.37b and losses of US$0.025 per share in 2026. While the revenue estimates were largely unchanged, sentiment seems to have improved, with the analysts upgrading their numbers and making a considerable decrease in losses per share in particular.

View our latest analysis for Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación. de

The average price target held steady at Mex$16.40, seeming to indicate that business is performing in line with expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación. de at Mex$18.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at Mex$13.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación. de shareholders.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación. de's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación. de's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 9.5% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 17% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the 80 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.8% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación. de's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación. de going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It might also be worth considering whether Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación. de's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.