Ulta Beauty Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of ULTA * when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

ULTA * (MX$8152) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (MX$11651.41)

Is ULTA * undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ULTA * when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ULTA * (MX$8152) is trading below our estimate of fair value (MX$11651.41)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ULTA * is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ULTA *?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for ULTA *. This is calculated by dividing ULTA *'s market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is ULTA *'s n/a Ratio?
n/a	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$19.13b

ULTA * key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	11.3x
PEG Ratio	4.9x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ULTA *'s PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ULTA * vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	12.2x
GIGANTE * Grupo Gigante S. A. B. de C. V	14x	n/a	Mex$25.8b
LIVEPOL C-1 El Puerto de Liverpool. de	7.1x	5.3%	Mex$156.2b
DKS DICK'S Sporting Goods	15x	3.7%	US$17.7b
GSANBOR B-1 Grupo Sanborns. de	12.8x	n/a	Mex$58.4b
ULTA * Ulta Beauty	15.7x	3.2%	Mex$19.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ULTA * is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.7x) compared to the peer average (12x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ULTA *'s PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Specialty Retail Industry?

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	n/a	17.7%
	n/a	n/a	n/a

Fetching data

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	n/a	17.7%
	n/a	n/a	n/a

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ULTA * is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.7x) compared to the Global Specialty Retail industry average (16.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ULTA *'s PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ULTA * PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	15.7x
Fair PE Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate ULTA *'s Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ULTA * forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	Mex$8,152.00	Mex$7,776.38 -4.6%	12.1%	Mex$9,804.37	Mex$5,824.38	n/a	26
Sep ’25	Mex$6,910.00	Mex$8,013.42 +16.0%	11.0%	Mex$9,943.80	Mex$5,907.21	n/a	25
Aug ’25	Mex$6,701.00	Mex$8,615.25 +28.6%	12.9%	Mex$10,136.76	Mex$5,968.20	n/a	25
Jul ’25	Mex$7,009.00	Mex$8,817.39 +25.8%	12.8%	Mex$11,134.28	Mex$6,403.43	n/a	25
Jun ’25	Mex$6,635.00	Mex$8,274.23 +24.7%	12.0%	Mex$10,324.99	Mex$5,938.00	n/a	25
May ’25	Mex$6,875.90	Mex$9,366.62 +36.2%	13.7%	Mex$11,743.80	Mex$5,957.00	n/a	26
Apr ’25	Mex$8,650.00	Mex$9,693.98 +12.1%	10.8%	Mex$11,475.74	Mex$6,818.92	n/a	26
Mar ’25	Mex$9,491.00	Mex$9,342.46 -1.6%	12.6%	Mex$10,837.29	Mex$6,451.17	n/a	25
Feb ’25	n/a	Mex$9,224.07 0%	12.1%	Mex$10,927.52	Mex$6,504.89	n/a	25
Jan ’25	n/a	Mex$8,997.43 0%	11.3%	Mex$10,529.03	Mex$6,419.31	n/a	25
Dec ’24	Mex$8,132.00	Mex$8,989.70 +10.5%	11.6%	Mex$10,662.14	Mex$6,500.47	n/a	25
Nov ’24	n/a	Mex$9,258.08 0%	12.0%	Mex$10,926.06	Mex$6,761.18	n/a	24
Oct ’24	n/a	Mex$9,219.45 0%	12.1%	Mex$11,272.32	Mex$6,604.88	n/a	24
Sep ’24	Mex$7,098.01	Mex$8,774.55 +23.6%	12.1%	Mex$10,747.78	Mex$6,297.53	Mex$6,910.00	24
Aug ’24	n/a	Mex$9,115.62 0%	13.0%	Mex$11,014.46	Mex$6,023.54	Mex$6,701.00	24
Jul ’24	n/a	Mex$9,115.62 0%	13.0%	Mex$11,014.46	Mex$6,023.54	Mex$7,009.00	24
Jun ’24	n/a	Mex$9,276.57 0%	13.5%	Mex$11,279.94	Mex$6,168.72	Mex$6,635.00	24
May ’24	n/a	Mex$9,956.35 0%	12.7%	Mex$11,474.30	Mex$6,526.01	Mex$6,875.90	24
Apr ’24	n/a	Mex$9,935.60 0%	12.7%	Mex$11,462.25	Mex$6,343.88	Mex$8,650.00	24
Mar ’24	n/a	Mex$9,751.91 0%	13.0%	Mex$11,248.50	Mex$6,523.02	Mex$9,491.00	25
Feb ’24	Mex$9,508.85	Mex$9,616.52 +1.1%	12.1%	Mex$11,335.30	Mex$6,573.35	n/a	25
Jan ’24	n/a	Mex$10,021.48 0%	11.8%	Mex$11,826.42	Mex$6,858.16	n/a	25
Dec ’23	n/a	Mex$9,295.60 0%	11.5%	Mex$11,574.06	Mex$6,539.34	Mex$8,132.00	26
Nov ’23	Mex$7,955.02	Mex$9,574.30 +20.4%	11.3%	Mex$11,992.86	Mex$6,775.97	n/a	26
Oct ’23	n/a	Mex$9,574.30 0%	11.3%	Mex$11,992.86	Mex$6,775.97	n/a	26
Sep ’23	Mex$8,400.00	Mex$9,579.19 +14.0%	11.4%	Mex$12,015.48	Mex$6,788.75	Mex$7,098.01	26

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.