Ulta Beauty Valuation
Is ULTA * undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
3/6Valuation Score 3/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of ULTA * when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: ULTA * (MX$6975) is trading below our estimate of fair value (MX$8155.38)
Significantly Below Fair Value: ULTA * is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ULTA *?
Key metric: As ULTA * is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.
| What is ULTA *'s PE Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| PE Ratio | 13.2x |
| Earnings | US$1.21b |
| Market Cap | US$15.94b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 1.5x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 9.6x |
| PEG Ratio | -15.4x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does ULTA *'s PE Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 19x | ||
GIGANTE * Grupo Gigante S. A. B. de C. V | 16.8x | n/a | Mex$27.8b |
LIVEPOL C-1 El Puerto de Liverpool. de | 6.2x | 5.1% | Mex$141.6b |
CHWY Chewy | 40.2x | -0.3% | US$14.6b |
GSANBOR B-1 Grupo Sanborns. de | 12.8x | n/a | Mex$58.4b |
ULTA * Ulta Beauty | 13.2x | -0.9% | Mex$15.9b |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ULTA * is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.2x) compared to the peer average (21.1x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does ULTA *'s PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Specialty Retail Industry?
| 16 Companies | Price / Earnings | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Companies | Estimated Growth | Market Cap | |
|---|---|---|---|
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ULTA * is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.2x) compared to the Global Specialty Retail industry average (16.4x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is ULTA *'s PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PE Ratio | 13.2x |
| Fair PE Ratio | n/a |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate ULTA *'s Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | Mex$6,975.00 | Mex$8,035.29 +15.2% | 12.2% | Mex$9,553.19 | Mex$6,071.94 | n/a | 26 |
| Nov ’25 | Mex$7,530.00 | Mex$7,958.98 +5.7% | 12.3% | Mex$9,480.83 | Mex$6,025.95 | n/a | 26 |
| Oct ’25 | Mex$7,680.00 | Mex$8,046.39 +4.8% | 12.1% | Mex$10,144.79 | Mex$6,026.61 | n/a | 26 |
| Sep ’25 | Mex$6,910.00 | Mex$8,013.42 +16.0% | 11.0% | Mex$9,943.80 | Mex$5,907.21 | n/a | 25 |
| Aug ’25 | Mex$6,701.00 | Mex$8,615.25 +28.6% | 12.9% | Mex$10,136.76 | Mex$5,968.20 | n/a | 25 |
| Jul ’25 | Mex$7,009.00 | Mex$8,817.39 +25.8% | 12.8% | Mex$11,134.28 | Mex$6,403.43 | n/a | 25 |
| Jun ’25 | Mex$6,635.00 | Mex$8,274.23 +24.7% | 12.0% | Mex$10,324.99 | Mex$5,938.00 | n/a | 25 |
| May ’25 | Mex$6,875.90 | Mex$9,366.62 +36.2% | 13.7% | Mex$11,743.80 | Mex$5,957.00 | n/a | 26 |
| Apr ’25 | Mex$8,650.00 | Mex$9,693.98 +12.1% | 10.8% | Mex$11,475.74 | Mex$6,818.92 | n/a | 26 |
| Mar ’25 | Mex$9,491.00 | Mex$9,342.46 -1.6% | 12.6% | Mex$10,837.29 | Mex$6,451.17 | n/a | 25 |
| Feb ’25 | n/a | Mex$9,224.07 0% | 12.1% | Mex$10,927.52 | Mex$6,504.89 | n/a | 25 |
| Jan ’25 | n/a | Mex$8,997.43 0% | 11.3% | Mex$10,529.03 | Mex$6,419.31 | n/a | 25 |
| Dec ’24 | Mex$8,132.00 | Mex$8,989.70 +10.5% | 11.6% | Mex$10,662.14 | Mex$6,500.47 | n/a | 25 |
| Nov ’24 | n/a | Mex$9,258.08 0% | 12.0% | Mex$10,926.06 | Mex$6,761.18 | Mex$7,530.00 | 24 |
| Oct ’24 | n/a | Mex$9,219.45 0% | 12.1% | Mex$11,272.32 | Mex$6,604.88 | Mex$7,680.00 | 24 |
| Sep ’24 | Mex$7,098.01 | Mex$8,774.55 +23.6% | 12.1% | Mex$10,747.78 | Mex$6,297.53 | Mex$6,910.00 | 24 |
| Aug ’24 | n/a | Mex$9,115.62 0% | 13.0% | Mex$11,014.46 | Mex$6,023.54 | Mex$6,701.00 | 24 |
| Jul ’24 | n/a | Mex$9,115.62 0% | 13.0% | Mex$11,014.46 | Mex$6,023.54 | Mex$7,009.00 | 24 |
| Jun ’24 | n/a | Mex$9,276.57 0% | 13.5% | Mex$11,279.94 | Mex$6,168.72 | Mex$6,635.00 | 24 |
| May ’24 | n/a | Mex$9,956.35 0% | 12.7% | Mex$11,474.30 | Mex$6,526.01 | Mex$6,875.90 | 24 |
| Apr ’24 | n/a | Mex$9,935.60 0% | 12.7% | Mex$11,462.25 | Mex$6,343.88 | Mex$8,650.00 | 24 |
| Mar ’24 | n/a | Mex$9,751.91 0% | 13.0% | Mex$11,248.50 | Mex$6,523.02 | Mex$9,491.00 | 25 |
| Feb ’24 | Mex$9,508.85 | Mex$9,616.52 +1.1% | 12.1% | Mex$11,335.30 | Mex$6,573.35 | n/a | 25 |
| Jan ’24 | n/a | Mex$10,021.48 0% | 11.8% | Mex$11,826.42 | Mex$6,858.16 | n/a | 25 |
| Dec ’23 | n/a | Mex$9,295.60 0% | 11.5% | Mex$11,574.06 | Mex$6,539.34 | Mex$8,132.00 | 26 |
| Nov ’23 | Mex$7,955.02 | Mex$9,574.30 +20.4% | 11.3% | Mex$11,992.86 | Mex$6,775.97 | n/a | 26 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.
Discover undervalued companies
ODP
US$2.0b
Provides business services and supplies, products, and digital workplace technology solutions for small, medium, and enterprise businesses in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the U.S.
ODP *
US$826.00
7D
0%
1Y
n/a
Beyond
US$293.7m
Operates as an online retailer of furniture and home furnishings products in the United States and Canada.
BYON *
US$177.91
7D
0%
1Y
n/a
Alibaba Group Holding
US$189.0b
Through its subsidiaries, provides technology infrastructure and marketing reach to help merchants, brands, retailers, and other businesses to engage with their users and customers in the People's Republic of China and internationally.
BABA N
US$1,704.19
7D
-5.6%
1Y
27.0%