Advance Auto Parts Valuation
Is AAP * undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
1/6Valuation Score 1/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of AAP * when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: AAP * (MX$880) is trading below our estimate of fair value (MX$934.76)
Significantly Below Fair Value: AAP * is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AAP *?
Key metric: As AAP * is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.
| What is AAP *'s PE Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| PE Ratio | 55.2x |
| Earnings | US$47.15m |
| Market Cap | US$2.60b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 0.6x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 14x |
| PEG Ratio | 1.1x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does AAP *'s PE Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 10.3x | ||
GIGANTE * Grupo Gigante S. A. B. de C. V | 16.2x | n/a | Mex$26.8b |
GSANBOR B-1 Grupo Sanborns. de | 12.8x | n/a | Mex$58.4b |
LIVEPOL C-1 El Puerto de Liverpool. de | 6.1x | 5.1% | Mex$141.7b |
GPH 1 Grupo Palacio de Hierro. de | 6.3x | n/a | Mex$16.6b |
AAP * Advance Auto Parts | 55.2x | 49.8% | Mex$2.6b |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AAP * is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (55.2x) compared to the peer average (9.5x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does AAP *'s PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Specialty Retail Industry?
| 15 Companies | Price / Earnings | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Companies | Estimated Growth | Market Cap | |
|---|---|---|---|
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AAP * is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (55.2x) compared to the Global Specialty Retail industry average (16.3x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is AAP *'s PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PE Ratio | 55.2x |
| Fair PE Ratio | n/a |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate AAP *'s Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | Mex$880.00 | Mex$901.15 +2.4% | 24.8% | Mex$1,351.73 | Mex$348.17 | n/a | 20 |
| Nov ’25 | Mex$727.20 | Mex$986.25 +35.6% | 29.1% | Mex$1,707.35 | Mex$341.47 | n/a | 20 |
| Oct ’25 | Mex$782.00 | Mex$970.34 +24.1% | 30.0% | Mex$1,674.70 | Mex$334.94 | n/a | 20 |
| Sep ’25 | Mex$937.33 | Mex$966.24 +3.1% | 26.0% | Mex$1,621.53 | Mex$324.31 | n/a | 20 |
| Aug ’25 | n/a | Mex$1,174.12 0% | 25.0% | Mex$1,862.20 | Mex$391.06 | n/a | 20 |
| Jul ’25 | Mex$1,150.00 | Mex$1,163.44 +1.2% | 25.0% | Mex$1,836.53 | Mex$385.67 | n/a | 20 |
| Jun ’25 | n/a | Mex$1,079.70 0% | 25.7% | Mex$1,699.61 | Mex$356.92 | n/a | 19 |
| May ’25 | n/a | Mex$1,078.57 0% | 23.0% | Mex$1,671.56 | Mex$585.05 | n/a | 20 |
| Apr ’25 | Mex$1,436.00 | Mex$1,064.36 -25.9% | 23.6% | Mex$1,662.42 | Mex$581.85 | n/a | 20 |
| Mar ’25 | Mex$1,132.78 | Mex$1,076.85 -4.9% | 22.6% | Mex$1,667.82 | Mex$595.65 | n/a | 20 |
| Feb ’25 | n/a | Mex$977.17 0% | 25.1% | Mex$1,687.81 | Mex$551.12 | n/a | 21 |
| Jan ’25 | n/a | Mex$961.62 0% | 24.5% | Mex$1,664.27 | Mex$543.43 | n/a | 20 |
| Dec ’24 | n/a | Mex$990.60 0% | 25.0% | Mex$1,696.73 | Mex$554.04 | n/a | 20 |
| Nov ’24 | n/a | Mex$1,235.72 0% | 19.1% | Mex$1,780.50 | Mex$763.07 | Mex$727.20 | 20 |
| Oct ’24 | n/a | Mex$1,257.14 0% | 14.3% | Mex$1,708.24 | Mex$871.55 | Mex$782.00 | 19 |
| Sep ’24 | n/a | Mex$1,206.37 0% | 12.0% | Mex$1,407.44 | Mex$837.76 | Mex$937.33 | 17 |
| Aug ’24 | Mex$1,228.00 | Mex$1,257.26 +2.4% | 12.7% | Mex$1,423.84 | Mex$837.55 | n/a | 18 |
| Jul ’24 | n/a | Mex$1,363.48 0% | 17.9% | Mex$2,224.92 | Mex$975.54 | Mex$1,150.00 | 18 |
| Jun ’24 | Mex$1,220.10 | Mex$1,505.90 +23.4% | 33.0% | Mex$3,352.70 | Mex$1,000.54 | n/a | 19 |
| May ’24 | n/a | Mex$2,728.61 0% | 12.0% | Mex$3,445.72 | Mex$1,894.24 | n/a | 20 |
| Apr ’24 | n/a | Mex$2,797.98 0% | 13.1% | Mex$3,622.50 | Mex$1,892.35 | Mex$1,436.00 | 20 |
| Mar ’24 | n/a | Mex$2,855.49 0% | 13.1% | Mex$3,638.68 | Mex$1,900.80 | Mex$1,132.78 | 19 |
| Feb ’24 | n/a | Mex$3,139.11 0% | 13.3% | Mex$3,910.41 | Mex$2,234.52 | n/a | 19 |
| Jan ’24 | Mex$4,099.99 | Mex$3,421.01 -16.6% | 12.9% | Mex$4,326.70 | Mex$2,370.79 | n/a | 19 |
| Dec ’23 | Mex$4,099.99 | Mex$3,444.28 -16.0% | 13.7% | Mex$4,280.66 | Mex$2,345.57 | n/a | 19 |
| Nov ’23 | Mex$4,099.99 | Mex$4,097.62 -0.06% | 11.4% | Mex$4,993.23 | Mex$2,615.50 | n/a | 20 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.
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