Stock Analysis

TV Azteca. de (BMV:AZTECACPO) Seems To Be Using A Lot Of Debt

BMV:AZTECA CPO
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Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. Importantly, TV Azteca, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:AZTECACPO) does carry debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

Check out our latest analysis for TV Azteca. de

What Is TV Azteca. de's Net Debt?

The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that TV Azteca. de had Mex$13.5b in debt in December 2020; about the same as the year before. However, it does have Mex$3.58b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about Mex$9.94b.

debt-equity-history-analysis
BMV:AZTECA CPO Debt to Equity History April 29th 2021

How Healthy Is TV Azteca. de's Balance Sheet?

The latest balance sheet data shows that TV Azteca. de had liabilities of Mex$10.5b due within a year, and liabilities of Mex$15.2b falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of Mex$3.58b and Mex$3.30b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by Mex$18.9b.

The deficiency here weighs heavily on the Mex$1.07b company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. After all, TV Azteca. de would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

Weak interest cover of 0.47 times and a disturbingly high net debt to EBITDA ratio of 7.7 hit our confidence in TV Azteca. de like a one-two punch to the gut. The debt burden here is substantial. Even worse, TV Azteca. de saw its EBIT tank 69% over the last 12 months. If earnings keep going like that over the long term, it has a snowball's chance in hell of paying off that debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since TV Azteca. de will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. During the last three years, TV Azteca. de generated free cash flow amounting to a very robust 96% of its EBIT, more than we'd expect. That puts it in a very strong position to pay down debt.

Our View

On the face of it, TV Azteca. de's EBIT growth rate left us tentative about the stock, and its level of total liabilities was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But at least it's pretty decent at converting EBIT to free cash flow; that's encouraging. After considering the datapoints discussed, we think TV Azteca. de has too much debt. That sort of riskiness is ok for some, but it certainly doesn't float our boat. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example - TV Azteca. de has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

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