Philip Morris International Inc.

BMV:PM * Stock Report

Market Cap: Mex$4.1t

Philip Morris International Valuation

Is PM * undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of PM * when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: PM * (MX$2554) is trading below our estimate of fair value (MX$4164.99)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PM * is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for PM *?

Key metric: As PM * is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for PM *. This is calculated by dividing PM *'s market cap by their current earnings.
What is PM *'s PE Ratio?
PE Ratio20.9x
EarningsUS$9.81b
Market CapUS$204.80b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does PM *'s PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for PM * vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average18.6x
FEMSA UBD Fomento Económico Mexicano. de
21.2x8.6%Mex$609.8b
MO Altria Group
9.3x-4.7%US$94.8b
AC * Arca Continental. de
15.3x8.0%Mex$288.2b
ITC ITC
28.5x9.6%₹5.8t
PM * Philip Morris International
20.9x9.4%Mex$204.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: PM * is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.9x) compared to the peer average (18.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does PM *'s PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Tobacco Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No. of Companies8PE01020304050+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: PM * is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.9x) compared to the Global Tobacco industry average (11.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is PM *'s PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

PM * PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio20.9x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate PM *'s Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst PM * forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Currentn/a
Mex$2,752.66
0%
12.1%Mex$3,137.17Mex$2,064.46n/a13
Nov ’25Mex$2,554.00
Mex$2,705.74
+5.9%
12.5%Mex$3,126.74Mex$2,057.60n/a13
Oct ’25n/a
Mex$2,480.60
0%
11.3%Mex$2,843.91Mex$2,000.55n/a13
Sep ’25n/a
Mex$2,236.01
0%
9.1%Mex$2,523.64Mex$1,789.14n/a14
Aug ’25Mex$2,152.00
Mex$2,124.72
-1.3%
8.6%Mex$2,460.74Mex$1,744.55n/a14
Jul ’25n/a
Mex$2,041.60
0%
8.3%Mex$2,460.95Mex$1,652.88n/a14
Jun ’25Mex$1,680.00
Mex$1,848.99
+10.1%
9.0%Mex$2,264.31Mex$1,453.21n/a15
May ’25Mex$1,673.00
Mex$1,869.43
+11.7%
8.8%Mex$2,294.99Mex$1,472.90n/a16
Apr ’25Mex$1,500.00
Mex$1,815.15
+21.0%
9.5%Mex$2,253.67Mex$1,429.56n/a15
Mar ’25Mex$1,525.00
Mex$1,818.60
+19.3%
10.4%Mex$2,284.97Mex$1,449.42n/a16
Feb ’25Mex$1,510.00
Mex$1,853.47
+22.7%
10.7%Mex$2,298.21Mex$1,466.39n/a16
Jan ’25Mex$1,570.00
Mex$1,863.29
+18.7%
9.1%Mex$2,231.83Mex$1,467.86n/a18
Dec ’24Mex$1,615.00
Mex$1,887.76
+16.9%
9.1%Mex$2,250.77Mex$1,480.31n/a18
Nov ’24Mex$1,614.00
Mex$1,979.09
+22.6%
8.6%Mex$2,346.96Mex$1,543.57Mex$2,554.0017
Oct ’24Mex$1,610.00
Mex$1,991.28
+23.7%
7.7%Mex$2,282.18Mex$1,527.30n/a17
Sep ’24Mex$1,624.00
Mex$1,913.14
+17.8%
8.2%Mex$2,199.87Mex$1,472.22n/a18
Aug ’24Mex$1,670.30
Mex$1,922.02
+15.1%
8.2%Mex$2,207.92Mex$1,477.61Mex$2,152.0018
Jul ’24Mex$1,676.00
Mex$1,932.60
+15.3%
8.2%Mex$2,225.54Mex$1,489.40n/a18
Jun ’24Mex$1,591.80
Mex$2,032.83
+27.7%
8.0%Mex$2,336.36Mex$1,617.48Mex$1,680.0018
May ’24Mex$1,780.00
Mex$2,038.43
+14.5%
7.9%Mex$2,340.49Mex$1,620.34Mex$1,673.0018
Apr ’24Mex$1,681.12
Mex$2,048.39
+21.8%
8.2%Mex$2,352.88Mex$1,628.92Mex$1,500.0017
Mar ’24Mex$1,800.00
Mex$2,025.62
+12.5%
8.6%Mex$2,353.38Mex$1,629.26Mex$1,525.0019
Feb ’24Mex$1,946.00
Mex$2,006.46
+3.1%
10.0%Mex$2,420.73Mex$1,675.89Mex$1,510.0019
Jan ’24Mex$1,962.00
Mex$2,074.66
+5.7%
10.2%Mex$2,514.27Mex$1,702.58Mex$1,570.0018
Dec ’23Mex$1,964.50
Mex$1,982.73
+0.9%
9.5%Mex$2,452.71Mex$1,660.89Mex$1,615.0017
Nov ’23Mex$1,830.00
Mex$2,018.30
+10.3%
10.2%Mex$2,530.06Mex$1,693.34Mex$1,614.0017

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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