Grupo Herdez, S.A.B. de C.V.

BMV:HERDEZ * Stock Report

Market Cap: Mex$16.6b

Grupo Herdez. de Valuation

Is HERDEZ * undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HERDEZ * when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HERDEZ * (MX$50.97) is trading below our estimate of fair value (MX$134.57)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HERDEZ * is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HERDEZ *?

Key metric: As HERDEZ * is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for HERDEZ *. This is calculated by dividing HERDEZ *'s market cap by their current earnings.
What is HERDEZ *'s PE Ratio?
PE Ratio11.6x
EarningsMex$1.39b
Market CapMex$16.63b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HERDEZ *'s PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HERDEZ * vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average14.5x
BAFAR B Grupo Bafar. de
11.4xn/aMex$36.3b
BACHOCO B Industrias Bachoco. de
14xn/aMex$50.9b
ACCELSA B Accel. de
20.3xn/aMex$4.3b
MINSA B Grupo Minsa. de
12.3xn/aMex$3.1b
HERDEZ * Grupo Herdez. de
11.9x16.6%Mex$16.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HERDEZ * is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.9x) compared to the peer average (14.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HERDEZ *'s PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the South American Food Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No. of Companies14PE0816243240+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HERDEZ * is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.9x) compared to the South American Food industry average (9.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HERDEZ *'s PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HERDEZ * PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio11.6x
Fair PE Ratio14.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HERDEZ * is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HERDEZ * forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentMex$50.97
Mex$58.00
+13.8%
10.3%Mex$64.00Mex$52.00n/a2
Nov ’25Mex$52.03
Mex$63.67
+22.4%
14.8%Mex$75.00Mex$52.00n/a3
Oct ’25Mex$54.53
Mex$63.67
+16.8%
14.8%Mex$75.00Mex$52.00n/a3
Sep ’25Mex$57.37
Mex$63.67
+11.0%
14.8%Mex$75.00Mex$52.00n/a3
Aug ’25Mex$54.30
Mex$63.67
+17.2%
14.8%Mex$75.00Mex$52.00n/a3
Jul ’25Mex$53.53
Mex$63.67
+18.9%
14.8%Mex$75.00Mex$52.00n/a3
Jun ’25Mex$51.39
Mex$61.50
+19.7%
14.6%Mex$75.00Mex$52.00n/a4
May ’25Mex$48.98
Mex$61.50
+25.6%
14.6%Mex$75.00Mex$52.00n/a4
Apr ’25Mex$45.25
Mex$63.50
+40.3%
11.6%Mex$75.00Mex$55.00n/a4
Mar ’25Mex$46.89
Mex$63.50
+35.4%
11.6%Mex$75.00Mex$55.00n/a4
Feb ’25Mex$44.62
Mex$60.75
+36.1%
14.2%Mex$75.00Mex$53.00n/a4
Jan ’25Mex$46.10
Mex$60.75
+31.8%
14.2%Mex$75.00Mex$53.00n/a4
Dec ’24Mex$44.63
Mex$60.75
+36.1%
14.2%Mex$75.00Mex$53.00n/a4
Nov ’24Mex$40.85
Mex$60.75
+48.7%
14.2%Mex$75.00Mex$53.00Mex$52.034
Oct ’24Mex$40.98
Mex$60.75
+48.2%
14.2%Mex$75.00Mex$53.00Mex$54.534
Sep ’24Mex$42.83
Mex$60.75
+41.8%
14.2%Mex$75.00Mex$53.00Mex$57.374
Aug ’24Mex$48.43
Mex$60.75
+25.4%
14.2%Mex$75.00Mex$53.00Mex$54.304
Jul ’24Mex$44.43
Mex$60.75
+36.7%
14.2%Mex$75.00Mex$53.00Mex$53.534
Jun ’24Mex$44.36
Mex$59.38
+33.8%
16.5%Mex$75.00Mex$49.50Mex$51.394
May ’24Mex$47.89
Mex$59.38
+24.0%
16.5%Mex$75.00Mex$49.50Mex$48.984
Apr ’24Mex$46.47
Mex$55.63
+19.7%
8.2%Mex$60.00Mex$49.50Mex$45.254
Mar ’24Mex$44.24
Mex$55.63
+25.7%
8.2%Mex$60.00Mex$49.50Mex$46.894
Feb ’24Mex$45.40
Mex$50.83
+12.0%
3.0%Mex$53.00Mex$49.50Mex$44.623
Jan ’24Mex$43.65
Mex$50.83
+16.5%
3.0%Mex$53.00Mex$49.50Mex$46.103
Dec ’23Mex$39.82
Mex$52.38
+31.5%
8.4%Mex$60.00Mex$49.50Mex$44.634
Nov ’23Mex$39.20
Mex$52.38
+33.6%
8.4%Mex$60.00Mex$49.50Mex$40.854

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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