Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We can see that Becle, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:CUERVO) does use debt in its business. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
Check out our latest analysis for Becle. de
How Much Debt Does Becle. de Carry?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of September 2020 Becle. de had Mex$11.3b of debt, an increase on Mex$9.87b, over one year. However, it does have Mex$7.78b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about Mex$3.53b.
How Healthy Is Becle. de's Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Becle. de had liabilities of Mex$8.52b due within 12 months, and liabilities of Mex$17.8b due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of Mex$7.78b and Mex$9.27b worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling Mex$9.26b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
Given Becle. de has a market capitalization of Mex$179.7b, it's hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. However, we do think it is worth keeping an eye on its balance sheet strength, as it may change over time.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Becle. de has a low net debt to EBITDA ratio of only 0.43. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 20.2 times the size. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. In addition to that, we're happy to report that Becle. de has boosted its EBIT by 43%, thus reducing the spectre of future debt repayments. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Becle. de can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the last three years, Becle. de recorded negative free cash flow, in total. Debt is usually more expensive, and almost always more risky in the hands of a company with negative free cash flow. Shareholders ought to hope for an improvement.
Our View
Happily, Becle. de's impressive interest cover implies it has the upper hand on its debt. But the stark truth is that we are concerned by its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow. When we consider the range of factors above, it looks like Becle. de is pretty sensible with its use of debt. While that brings some risk, it can also enhance returns for shareholders. Above most other metrics, we think its important to track how fast earnings per share is growing, if at all. If you've also come to that realization, you're in luck, because today you can view this interactive graph of Becle. de's earnings per share history for free.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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About BMV:CUERVO *
Becle. de
Manufactures and distributes spirits and other distilled beverages in Mexico, the United States, Canada, and internationally.
Solid track record with excellent balance sheet.