Valero Energy Corporation

BMV:VLO * Stock Report

Market Cap: Mex$872.4b

Valero Energy Valuation

Is VLO * undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of VLO * when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
Mex$3.54k
Fair Value
17.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
19
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: VLO * (MX$2939.77) is trading below our estimate of fair value (MX$3544.26)

Significantly Below Fair Value: VLO * is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for VLO *?

Key metric: As VLO * is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for VLO *. This is calculated by dividing VLO *'s market cap by their current earnings.
What is VLO *'s PE Ratio?
PE Ratio15.2x
EarningsUS$2.77b
Market CapUS$42.11b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does VLO *'s PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for VLO * vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average14.4x
MPC Marathon Petroleum
10.4x-0.6%US$48.2b
VISTA A Vista Energy. de
9.9x13.9%Mex$109.0b
PSX Phillips 66
23x17.9%US$49.9b
ADNOCGAS ADNOC Gas
14.3x-0.1%د.إ261.0b
VLO * Valero Energy
15.2x11.4%Mex$42.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: VLO * is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.2x) compared to the peer average (14.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does VLO *'s PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Oil and Gas Industry?

31 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No. of Companies82PE0816243240+
31 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: VLO * is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.2x) compared to the Global Oil and Gas industry average (10.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is VLO *'s PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

VLO * PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio15.2x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate VLO *'s Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst VLO * forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentMex$2,939.77
Mex$3,075.60
+4.6%
8.5%Mex$3,480.89Mex$2,652.11n/a19
Jan ’26Mex$2,384.00
Mex$2,996.21
+25.7%
10.0%Mex$3,556.31Mex$2,485.37n/a19
Dec ’25Mex$2,896.00
Mex$3,064.20
+5.8%
11.2%Mex$3,583.75Mex$2,504.55n/a19
Nov ’25n/a
Mex$3,029.98
0%
11.2%Mex$3,525.23Mex$2,463.65n/a19
Oct ’25Mex$2,685.38
Mex$3,056.95
+13.8%
12.8%Mex$3,727.60Mex$2,388.00n/a18
Sep ’25Mex$2,862.00
Mex$3,199.48
+11.8%
9.1%Mex$3,589.90Mex$2,393.27n/a18
Aug ’25Mex$3,080.45
Mex$3,188.65
+3.5%
9.1%Mex$3,575.42Mex$2,383.62n/a18
Jul ’25Mex$2,911.08
Mex$3,205.44
+10.1%
9.6%Mex$3,617.96Mex$2,350.76n/a17
Jun ’25Mex$2,641.00
Mex$3,080.20
+16.6%
9.6%Mex$3,569.18Mex$2,175.50n/a18
May ’25Mex$2,760.00
Mex$3,073.06
+11.3%
10.8%Mex$3,574.20Mex$2,178.56n/a18
Apr ’25Mex$2,820.00
Mex$2,685.57
-4.8%
10.3%Mex$3,276.41Mex$2,128.83n/a20
Mar ’25Mex$2,440.00
Mex$2,571.65
+5.4%
9.2%Mex$3,043.48Mex$2,188.57n/a21
Feb ’25Mex$2,390.00
Mex$2,580.01
+8.0%
8.7%Mex$3,048.38Mex$2,170.04Mex$2,939.7721
Jan ’25n/a
Mex$2,568.79
0%
10.3%Mex$3,023.22Mex$2,164.35Mex$2,384.0020
Dec ’24Mex$2,150.00
Mex$2,597.51
+20.8%
9.7%Mex$2,969.18Mex$2,187.81Mex$2,896.0020
Nov ’24Mex$2,258.85
Mex$2,694.85
+19.3%
9.3%Mex$3,087.15Mex$2,346.96n/a20
Oct ’24Mex$2,540.00
Mex$2,662.60
+4.8%
9.1%Mex$3,112.30Mex$2,263.49Mex$2,685.3820
Sep ’24Mex$2,166.00
Mex$2,512.33
+16.0%
8.5%Mex$2,922.61Mex$2,187.69Mex$2,862.0019
Aug ’24Mex$2,157.50
Mex$2,398.13
+11.2%
10.1%Mex$2,863.29Mex$1,892.12Mex$3,080.4520
Jul ’24Mex$2,014.00
Mex$2,438.54
+21.1%
11.0%Mex$2,944.55Mex$1,934.50Mex$2,911.0819
Jun ’24Mex$1,874.00
Mex$2,528.06
+34.9%
11.6%Mex$3,019.18Mex$1,983.53Mex$2,641.0019
May ’24Mex$2,050.00
Mex$2,738.36
+33.6%
11.2%Mex$3,370.58Mex$2,223.15Mex$2,760.0019
Apr ’24Mex$2,462.00
Mex$2,873.57
+16.7%
10.0%Mex$3,388.21Mex$2,234.78Mex$2,820.0018
Mar ’24Mex$2,531.99
Mex$2,840.07
+12.2%
9.5%Mex$3,193.93Mex$2,147.64Mex$2,440.0018
Feb ’24Mex$2,529.22
Mex$2,915.48
+15.3%
9.6%Mex$3,265.84Mex$2,196.00Mex$2,390.0018
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 19 Analysts
Mex$3.28k
Fair Value
10.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
19
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/02/01 15:56
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/28 00:00
Earnings2024/12/31
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Valero Energy Corporation is covered by 43 analysts. 13 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
William SeleskyArgus Research Company
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research
Yim ChengBarclays