Earnings Update: Here's Why Analysts Just Lifted Their Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:VISTAA) Price Target To Mex$784

It's been a pretty great week for Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:VISTAA) shareholders, with its shares surging 11% to Mex$620 in the week since its latest full-year results. It was an okay result overall, with revenues coming in at US$1.2b, roughly what the analysts had been expecting. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for Vista Energy. de

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Vista Energy. de's seven analysts is for revenues of US$1.70b in 2024. This would reflect a substantial 45% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to fall 13% to US$3.63 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.63b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.67 in 2024. So it looks like there's been no major change in sentiment following the latest results, although the analysts have made a small increase to to revenue forecasts.

The consensus price target increased 15% to Mex$784, with an improved revenue forecast carrying the promise of a more valuable business, in time.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Vista Energy. de's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Vista Energy. de's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 45% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 30% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 0.3% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Vista Energy. de is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Vista Energy. de going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Vista Energy. de (1 can't be ignored!) that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.