Yum China Holdings Valuation

Is YUMC * undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of YUMC * when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: YUMC * (MX$1020) is trading above our estimate of fair value (MX$942.02)

Significantly Below Fair Value: YUMC * is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for YUMC *?

Key metric: As YUMC * is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for YUMC *. This is calculated by dividing YUMC *'s market cap by their current earnings.
What is YUMC *'s PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	20x
Earnings	US$893.00m
Market Cap	US$17.88b

YUMC * key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.6x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	11.4x
PEG Ratio	2.3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does YUMC *'s PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for YUMC * vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	18.3x
ALSEA * Alsea. de	13.2x	23.2%	Mex$38.4b
DRI Darden Restaurants	18.9x	8.2%	US$19.3b
DPZ Domino's Pizza	27.4x	5.9%	US$15.4b
CMR B CMR. de	13.6x	n/a	Mex$714.9m
YUMC * Yum China Holdings	20x	8.8%	Mex$17.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: YUMC * is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20x) compared to the peer average (18.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does YUMC *'s PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the South American Hospitality Industry?

3 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

3 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: YUMC * is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20x) compared to the South American Hospitality industry average (17.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is YUMC *'s PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

YUMC * PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	20x
Fair PE Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate YUMC *'s Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst YUMC * forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	n/a	Mex$1,147.63 0%	16.1%	Mex$1,551.46	Mex$714.49	n/a	25
Nov ’25	n/a	Mex$1,024.34 0%	21.2%	Mex$1,521.22	Mex$700.56	n/a	25
Oct ’25	Mex$753.10	Mex$918.02 +21.9%	19.5%	Mex$1,496.29	Mex$689.08	n/a	23
Sep ’25	n/a	Mex$845.33 0%	20.0%	Mex$1,421.00	Mex$654.41	n/a	23
Aug ’25	Mex$550.62	Mex$916.80 +66.5%	21.6%	Mex$1,395.64	Mex$550.91	n/a	23
Jul ’25	Mex$595.00	Mex$968.27 +62.7%	18.7%	Mex$1,399.28	Mex$552.35	n/a	23
Jun ’25	n/a	Mex$902.19 0%	17.6%	Mex$1,284.23	Mex$574.53	n/a	24
May ’25	n/a	Mex$928.95 0%	17.8%	Mex$1,293.35	Mex$578.61	n/a	24
Apr ’25	n/a	Mex$953.17 0%	16.8%	Mex$1,345.47	Mex$568.46	n/a	24
Mar ’25	Mex$747.90	Mex$978.44 +30.8%	17.0%	Mex$1,362.74	Mex$575.76	n/a	24
Feb ’25	n/a	Mex$1,021.22 0%	18.7%	Mex$1,372.70	Mex$518.19	n/a	25
Jan ’25	n/a	Mex$1,080.76 0%	13.3%	Mex$1,365.54	Mex$744.22	n/a	25
Dec ’24	n/a	Mex$1,116.15 0%	12.9%	Mex$1,385.09	Mex$754.87	n/a	24
Nov ’24	n/a	Mex$1,215.48 0%	12.3%	Mex$1,424.98	Mex$776.62	n/a	23
Oct ’24	n/a	Mex$1,267.41 0%	8.3%	Mex$1,447.76	Mex$861.76	Mex$753.10	24
Sep ’24	n/a	Mex$1,238.81 0%	8.2%	Mex$1,432.18	Mex$852.49	n/a	25
Aug ’24	n/a	Mex$1,223.60 0%	7.6%	Mex$1,416.35	Mex$893.65	Mex$550.62	24
Jul ’24	Mex$972.98	Mex$1,259.49 +29.4%	7.6%	Mex$1,434.48	Mex$905.09	Mex$595.00	24
Jun ’24	n/a	Mex$1,296.89 0%	8.9%	Mex$1,491.44	Mex$941.03	n/a	25
May ’24	n/a	Mex$1,298.21 0%	11.6%	Mex$1,657.14	Mex$819.26	n/a	24
Apr ’24	n/a	Mex$1,298.21 0%	11.6%	Mex$1,657.14	Mex$819.26	n/a	24
Mar ’24	n/a	Mex$1,260.82 0%	12.6%	Mex$1,633.68	Mex$807.66	Mex$747.90	24
Feb ’24	Mex$1,106.75	Mex$1,199.51 +8.4%	13.9%	Mex$1,564.16	Mex$707.60	n/a	22
Jan ’24	Mex$1,106.67	Mex$1,171.61 +5.9%	14.2%	Mex$1,636.96	Mex$740.53	n/a	23
Dec ’23	n/a	Mex$1,144.69 0%	14.1%	Mex$1,625.69	Mex$735.43	n/a	23
Nov ’23	n/a	Mex$1,115.63 0%	16.5%	Mex$1,674.11	Mex$589.93	n/a	23

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.