Alsea. de Valuation
Is ALSEA * undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
4/6Valuation Score 4/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of ALSEA * when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: ALSEA * (MX$47.85) is trading above our estimate of fair value (MX$47.73)
Significantly Below Fair Value: ALSEA * is trading above our estimate of fair value.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ALSEA *?
Key metric: As ALSEA * is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.
| What is ALSEA *'s PE Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| PE Ratio | 13.5x |
| Earnings | Mex$2.88b |
| Market Cap | Mex$38.82b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 1.1x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 7x |
| PEG Ratio | 0.6x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does ALSEA *'s PE Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 30.6x | ||
CMR B CMR. de | 12.8x | n/a | Mex$671.9m |
RLH A RLH Properties. de | 30.9x | n/a | Mex$18.4b |
DNUT Krispy Kreme | 65.8x | -3.5% | US$1.9b |
ARCO Arcos Dorados Holdings | 12.7x | 15.4% | US$1.9b |
ALSEA * Alsea. de | 13.5x | 23.2% | Mex$38.8b |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ALSEA * is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.5x) compared to the peer average (30.6x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does ALSEA *'s PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the South American Hospitality Industry?
| 3 Companies | Price / Earnings | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Companies | Estimated Growth | Market Cap | |
|---|---|---|---|
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ALSEA * is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.5x) compared to the South American Hospitality industry average (17.2x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is ALSEA *'s PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PE Ratio | 13.5x |
| Fair PE Ratio | 22.1x |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ALSEA * is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.1x).
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | Mex$47.85 | Mex$76.77 +60.4% | 13.8% | Mex$98.00 | Mex$59.60 | n/a | 15 |
| Nov ’25 | Mex$49.13 | Mex$76.77 +56.3% | 13.8% | Mex$98.00 | Mex$59.60 | n/a | 15 |
| Oct ’25 | Mex$54.14 | Mex$79.36 +46.6% | 11.9% | Mex$98.00 | Mex$65.00 | n/a | 14 |
| Sep ’25 | Mex$53.91 | Mex$79.36 +47.2% | 11.9% | Mex$98.00 | Mex$65.00 | n/a | 14 |
| Aug ’25 | Mex$55.10 | Mex$79.07 +43.5% | 11.7% | Mex$98.00 | Mex$65.00 | n/a | 14 |
| Jul ’25 | Mex$65.00 | Mex$84.14 +29.5% | 10.3% | Mex$100.00 | Mex$69.50 | n/a | 14 |
| Jun ’25 | Mex$67.52 | Mex$84.29 +24.8% | 10.2% | Mex$100.00 | Mex$69.50 | n/a | 14 |
| May ’25 | Mex$71.76 | Mex$83.72 +16.7% | 10.7% | Mex$100.00 | Mex$67.90 | n/a | 13 |
| Apr ’25 | Mex$83.09 | Mex$75.81 -8.8% | 13.8% | Mex$98.00 | Mex$54.00 | n/a | 14 |
| Mar ’25 | Mex$66.52 | Mex$70.74 +6.3% | 9.5% | Mex$83.00 | Mex$54.00 | n/a | 16 |
| Feb ’25 | Mex$68.21 | Mex$67.21 -1.5% | 9.8% | Mex$80.00 | Mex$54.00 | n/a | 16 |
| Jan ’25 | Mex$64.16 | Mex$66.53 +3.7% | 9.8% | Mex$80.00 | Mex$54.00 | n/a | 16 |
| Dec ’24 | Mex$59.90 | Mex$65.23 +8.9% | 11.7% | Mex$80.00 | Mex$50.50 | n/a | 15 |
| Nov ’24 | Mex$60.07 | Mex$64.95 +8.1% | 13.3% | Mex$80.00 | Mex$44.30 | Mex$49.13 | 15 |
| Oct ’24 | Mex$63.41 | Mex$59.36 -6.4% | 21.0% | Mex$80.00 | Mex$39.00 | Mex$54.14 | 14 |
| Sep ’24 | Mex$59.75 | Mex$58.81 -1.6% | 20.5% | Mex$80.00 | Mex$39.00 | Mex$53.91 | 15 |
| Aug ’24 | Mex$57.83 | Mex$57.50 -0.6% | 18.9% | Mex$80.00 | Mex$39.00 | Mex$55.10 | 16 |
| Jul ’24 | Mex$55.51 | Mex$54.24 -2.3% | 19.6% | Mex$80.00 | Mex$37.40 | Mex$65.00 | 16 |
| Jun ’24 | Mex$51.23 | Mex$53.43 +4.3% | 16.8% | Mex$67.00 | Mex$37.40 | Mex$67.52 | 16 |
| May ’24 | Mex$48.18 | Mex$51.93 +7.8% | 17.0% | Mex$67.00 | Mex$37.90 | Mex$71.76 | 16 |
| Apr ’24 | Mex$43.16 | Mex$48.36 +12.0% | 16.6% | Mex$67.00 | Mex$34.70 | Mex$83.09 | 16 |
| Mar ’24 | Mex$41.25 | Mex$47.85 +16.0% | 17.5% | Mex$67.00 | Mex$32.80 | Mex$66.52 | 15 |
| Feb ’24 | Mex$44.92 | Mex$47.81 +6.4% | 17.5% | Mex$67.00 | Mex$34.10 | Mex$68.21 | 15 |
| Jan ’24 | Mex$36.86 | Mex$48.25 +30.9% | 16.8% | Mex$67.00 | Mex$34.10 | Mex$64.16 | 16 |
| Dec ’23 | Mex$39.56 | Mex$49.94 +26.2% | 15.3% | Mex$67.00 | Mex$34.10 | Mex$59.90 | 16 |
| Nov ’23 | Mex$38.11 | Mex$49.94 +31.0% | 15.3% | Mex$67.00 | Mex$34.10 | Mex$60.07 | 16 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.