Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.

BMV:RCL * Stock Report

Market Cap: Mex$1.3t

Royal Caribbean Cruises Valuation

Is RCL * undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of RCL * when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: RCL * (MX$4690) is trading below our estimate of fair value (MX$10866.86)

Significantly Below Fair Value: RCL * is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for RCL *?

Key metric: As RCL * is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for RCL *. This is calculated by dividing RCL *'s market cap by their current earnings.
What is RCL *'s PE Ratio?
PE Ratio23.9x
EarningsUS$2.60b
Market CapUS$62.24b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does RCL *'s PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for RCL * vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average30.6x
RLH A RLH Properties. de
30.9xn/aMex$18.4b
CCL Carnival Corporation &
20.2x19.8%US$31.2b
HLT Hilton Worldwide Holdings
51.5x17.6%US$60.6b
TCOM Trip.com Group
19.9x10.7%US$38.7b
RCL * Royal Caribbean Cruises
23.9x18.9%Mex$62.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: RCL * is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.9x) compared to the peer average (30.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does RCL *'s PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the South American Hospitality Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No. of Companies3PE01224364860+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: RCL * is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.9x) compared to the South American Hospitality industry average (17.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is RCL *'s PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

RCL * PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio23.9x
Fair PE Ratio32.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: RCL * is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (32.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst RCL * forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentMex$4,690.00
Mex$4,687.85
-0.05%
12.4%Mex$5,504.92Mex$3,160.23n/a20
Nov ’25Mex$4,120.00
Mex$4,375.60
+6.2%
13.5%Mex$5,144.11Mex$3,102.48n/a19
Oct ’25Mex$3,520.00
Mex$3,604.60
+2.4%
10.5%Mex$4,179.74Mex$2,825.74n/a21
Sep ’25Mex$3,285.99
Mex$3,475.16
+5.8%
10.3%Mex$4,006.13Mex$2,747.06n/a21
Aug ’25Mex$2,772.00
Mex$3,424.50
+23.5%
10.9%Mex$3,942.14Mex$2,628.09n/a20
Jul ’25Mex$2,843.40
Mex$3,006.89
+5.7%
9.8%Mex$3,744.03Mex$2,477.67n/a20
Jun ’25Mex$2,484.11
Mex$2,681.94
+8.0%
8.0%Mex$3,054.92Mex$2,241.38n/a20
May ’25Mex$2,407.00
Mex$2,661.30
+10.6%
8.8%Mex$3,131.28Mex$2,297.40n/a20
Apr ’25Mex$2,333.00
Mex$2,456.05
+5.3%
8.8%Mex$2,907.47Mex$1,921.60n/a21
Mar ’25Mex$2,125.20
Mex$2,475.93
+16.5%
8.5%Mex$2,961.24Mex$1,957.14n/a20
Feb ’25Mex$2,123.00
Mex$2,252.76
+6.1%
17.1%Mex$2,904.71Mex$1,353.25n/a18
Jan ’25Mex$2,252.78
Mex$2,113.33
-6.2%
15.9%Mex$2,621.41Mex$1,339.45n/a19
Dec ’24Mex$1,899.99
Mex$1,992.30
+4.9%
14.0%Mex$2,407.92Mex$1,362.19n/a17
Nov ’24Mex$1,525.23
Mex$2,072.43
+35.9%
13.1%Mex$2,524.17Mex$1,550.56Mex$4,120.0018
Oct ’24Mex$1,612.00
Mex$2,009.52
+24.7%
12.4%Mex$2,379.47Mex$1,472.19Mex$3,520.0018
Sep ’24Mex$1,665.00
Mex$1,973.77
+18.5%
14.8%Mex$2,369.92Mex$1,415.13Mex$3,285.9917
Aug ’24Mex$1,795.00
Mex$1,847.30
+2.9%
17.7%Mex$2,343.72Mex$1,180.29Mex$2,772.0017
Jul ’24Mex$1,790.00
Mex$1,639.19
-8.4%
13.6%Mex$2,054.34Mex$1,198.37Mex$2,843.4018
Jun ’24Mex$1,465.00
Mex$1,556.02
+6.2%
15.2%Mex$1,836.62Mex$971.29Mex$2,484.1118
May ’24Mex$1,174.00
Mex$1,429.93
+21.8%
15.2%Mex$1,797.99Mex$988.89Mex$2,407.0017
Apr ’24Mex$1,180.00
Mex$1,424.51
+20.7%
14.7%Mex$1,809.91Mex$995.45Mex$2,333.0017
Mar ’24Mex$1,303.90
Mex$1,458.91
+11.9%
15.0%Mex$1,836.55Mex$1,010.10Mex$2,125.2016
Feb ’24Mex$1,245.00
Mex$1,315.85
+5.7%
24.0%Mex$2,203.05Mex$753.18Mex$2,123.0017
Jan ’24Mex$966.99
Mex$1,316.37
+36.1%
27.1%Mex$2,271.19Mex$776.48Mex$2,252.7816
Dec ’23Mex$1,171.52
Mex$1,378.02
+17.6%
28.9%Mex$2,286.93Mex$781.86Mex$1,899.9916
Nov ’23Mex$1,049.72
Mex$1,336.08
+27.3%
38.4%Mex$2,689.43Mex$697.26Mex$1,525.2315

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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