GEO Group Valuation
Is GEO1 * undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
3/6Valuation Score 3/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of GEO1 * when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: GEO1 * (MX$240) is trading below our estimate of fair value (MX$510.84)
Significantly Below Fair Value: GEO1 * is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GEO1 *?
Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.
What is GEO1 *'s n/a Ratio? | |
---|---|
n/a | 0x |
n/a | n/a |
Market Cap | US$1.90b |
Key Statistics | |
---|---|
Enterprise Value/Revenue | 1.5x |
Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 7.7x |
PEG Ratio | 0.6x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does GEO1 *'s PE Ratio compare to its peers?
Company | Forward PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
---|---|---|---|
Peer Average | 21.8x | ||
PASA B Promotora Ambiental. de | 30x | n/a | Mex$5.0b |
CXW CoreCivic | 24.6x | 18.2% | US$1.7b |
9917 Taiwan Secom | 22x | n/a | NT$57.0b |
A012750 S-1 | 10.7x | 4.9% | ₩2.0t |
GEO1 * GEO Group | 21.3x | 33.9% | Mex$1.9b |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: GEO1 * is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.3x) compared to the peer average (21.8x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does GEO1 *'s PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Commercial Services Industry?
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: GEO1 * is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.3x) compared to the Global Commercial Services industry average (18.1x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is GEO1 *'s PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
Fair Ratio | |
---|---|
Current PE Ratio | 21.3x |
Fair PE Ratio | n/a |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate GEO1 *'s Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Current | n/a | Mex$316.76 0% | 20.6% | Mex$394.47 | Mex$230.11 | n/a | 4 |
Apr ’25 | Mex$244.80 | Mex$251.52 +2.7% | 2.9% | Mex$255.78 | Mex$238.73 | n/a | 4 |
Mar ’25 | n/a | Mex$251.52 0% | 2.9% | Mex$255.78 | Mex$238.73 | n/a | 4 |
Feb ’25 | Mex$187.00 | Mex$244.05 +30.5% | 3.4% | Mex$252.46 | Mex$235.63 | n/a | 4 |
Jan ’25 | Mex$180.00 | Mex$254.45 +41.4% | 3.4% | Mex$263.22 | Mex$245.67 | n/a | 4 |
Dec ’24 | Mex$172.00 | Mex$254.45 +47.9% | 3.4% | Mex$263.22 | Mex$245.67 | n/a | 4 |
Nov ’24 | n/a | Mex$249.65 0% | 7.2% | Mex$265.11 | Mex$220.93 | n/a | 4 |
Oct ’24 | Mex$135.87 | Mex$241.43 +77.7% | 8.3% | Mex$255.64 | Mex$213.03 | n/a | 3 |
Sep ’24 | Mex$124.00 | Mex$241.43 +94.7% | 8.3% | Mex$255.64 | Mex$213.03 | n/a | 3 |
Aug ’24 | n/a | Mex$241.74 0% | 13.8% | Mex$265.33 | Mex$194.57 | n/a | 3 |
Jul ’24 | Mex$125.00 | Mex$241.74 +93.4% | 13.8% | Mex$265.33 | Mex$194.57 | n/a | 3 |
Jun ’24 | n/a | Mex$241.74 0% | 13.8% | Mex$265.33 | Mex$194.57 | n/a | 3 |
May ’24 | n/a | Mex$235.89 0% | 21.8% | Mex$272.18 | Mex$163.31 | n/a | 3 |
Apr ’24 | n/a | Mex$265.39 0% | 6.6% | Mex$277.73 | Mex$240.70 | Mex$244.80 | 3 |
Mar ’24 | n/a | Mex$265.39 0% | 6.6% | Mex$277.73 | Mex$240.70 | n/a | 3 |
Feb ’24 | Mex$212.00 | Mex$277.80 +31.0% | 3.2% | Mex$284.11 | Mex$265.17 | Mex$187.00 | 3 |
Jan ’24 | Mex$211.00 | Mex$288.04 +36.5% | 3.2% | Mex$294.59 | Mex$274.95 | Mex$180.00 | 3 |
Dec ’23 | Mex$235.20 | Mex$282.10 +19.9% | 3.2% | Mex$288.52 | Mex$269.28 | Mex$172.00 | 3 |
Nov ’23 | Mex$171.50 | Mex$263.95 +53.9% | 17.7% | Mex$296.95 | Mex$197.96 | n/a | 3 |
Oct ’23 | Mex$156.00 | Mex$259.83 +66.6% | 21.8% | Mex$299.81 | Mex$179.88 | Mex$135.87 | 3 |
Sep ’23 | Mex$165.80 | Mex$259.83 +56.7% | 21.8% | Mex$299.81 | Mex$179.88 | Mex$124.00 | 3 |
Aug ’23 | n/a | Mex$260.08 0% | 26.1% | Mex$307.99 | Mex$164.26 | n/a | 3 |
Jul ’23 | Mex$125.00 | Mex$253.44 +102.8% | 26.1% | Mex$300.13 | Mex$160.07 | Mex$125.00 | 3 |
Jun ’23 | n/a | Mex$253.44 0% | 26.1% | Mex$300.13 | Mex$160.07 | n/a | 3 |
May ’23 | n/a | Mex$257.15 0% | 26.1% | Mex$304.52 | Mex$162.41 | n/a | 3 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.