David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We can see that Kukdo Chemical Co., Ltd. (KRX:007690) does use debt in its business. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
View our latest analysis for Kukdo Chemical
What Is Kukdo Chemical's Net Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at March 2024 Kukdo Chemical had debt of ₩545.1b, up from ₩495.6b in one year. However, because it has a cash reserve of ₩211.7b, its net debt is less, at about ₩333.3b.
How Healthy Is Kukdo Chemical's Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Kukdo Chemical had liabilities of ₩656.2b falling due within a year, and liabilities of ₩114.9b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of ₩211.7b as well as receivables valued at ₩297.3b due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling ₩262.1b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
This deficit is considerable relative to its market capitalization of ₩264.0b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on Kukdo Chemical's use of debt. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Kukdo Chemical shareholders face the double whammy of a high net debt to EBITDA ratio (6.2), and fairly weak interest coverage, since EBIT is just 1.1 times the interest expense. This means we'd consider it to have a heavy debt load. Worse, Kukdo Chemical's EBIT was down 85% over the last year. If earnings continue to follow that trajectory, paying off that debt load will be harder than convincing us to run a marathon in the rain. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Kukdo Chemical will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. During the last three years, Kukdo Chemical burned a lot of cash. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
Our View
To be frank both Kukdo Chemical's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow and its track record of (not) growing its EBIT make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. And even its net debt to EBITDA fails to inspire much confidence. We think the chances that Kukdo Chemical has too much debt a very significant. To our minds, that means the stock is rather high risk, and probably one to avoid; but to each their own (investing) style. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example - Kukdo Chemical has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.
Discover if Kukdo Chemical might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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About KOSE:A007690
Low and slightly overvalued.
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