Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We can see that Korea Industrial Co., Ltd. (KRX:002140) does use debt in its business. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
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What Is Korea Industrial's Debt?
As you can see below, at the end of June 2024, Korea Industrial had ₩142.2b of debt, up from ₩136.3b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. On the flip side, it has ₩23.4b in cash leading to net debt of about ₩118.8b.
How Healthy Is Korea Industrial's Balance Sheet?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Korea Industrial had liabilities of ₩161.5b due within a year, and liabilities of ₩22.4b falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had ₩23.4b in cash and ₩53.6b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling ₩106.9b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
Given this deficit is actually higher than the company's market capitalization of ₩74.0b, we think shareholders really should watch Korea Industrial's debt levels, like a parent watching their child ride a bike for the first time. In the scenario where the company had to clean up its balance sheet quickly, it seems likely shareholders would suffer extensive dilution.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Weak interest cover of 1.6 times and a disturbingly high net debt to EBITDA ratio of 9.8 hit our confidence in Korea Industrial like a one-two punch to the gut. The debt burden here is substantial. Another concern for investors might be that Korea Industrial's EBIT fell 13% in the last year. If things keep going like that, handling the debt will about as easy as bundling an angry house cat into its travel box. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Korea Industrial will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the last three years, Korea Industrial saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
Our View
To be frank both Korea Industrial's net debt to EBITDA and its track record of converting EBIT to free cash flow make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. And even its level of total liabilities fails to inspire much confidence. We think the chances that Korea Industrial has too much debt a very significant. To our minds, that means the stock is rather high risk, and probably one to avoid; but to each their own (investing) style. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. We've identified 4 warning signs with Korea Industrial (at least 3 which make us uncomfortable) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About KOSE:A002140
Korea Industrial
Manufactures and sells mixed feed for laying hen, broiler, pig, dairy, feeder cattle, duck, rabbit, black goat, sheep dog, and others in South Korea.
Slight and slightly overvalued.