Stock Analysis

Are HITEJINRO Co., Ltd. (KRX:000080) Investors Paying Above The Intrinsic Value?

KOSE:A000080
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In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of HITEJINRO Co., Ltd. (KRX:000080) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

See our latest analysis for HITEJINRO

Is HITEJINRO fairly valued?

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Levered FCF (₩, Millions) ₩154.5b ₩171.0b ₩146.1b ₩132.9b ₩125.9b ₩122.7b ₩121.9b ₩122.6b ₩124.5b ₩127.2b
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x8 Analyst x8 Est @ -14.52% Est @ -9.06% Est @ -5.24% Est @ -2.56% Est @ -0.69% Est @ 0.62% Est @ 1.54% Est @ 2.18%
Present Value (₩, Millions) Discounted @ 9.2% ₩141.4k ₩143.3k ₩112.2k ₩93.4k ₩81.0k ₩72.3k ₩65.7k ₩60.6k ₩56.3k ₩52.7k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = ₩879b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 3.7%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 9.2%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2030 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = ₩127b× (1 + 3.7%) ÷ (9.2%– 3.7%) = ₩2.4t

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= ₩2.4t÷ ( 1 + 9.2%)10= ₩986b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is ₩1.9t. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of ₩33k, the company appears slightly overvalued at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

dcf
KOSE:A000080 Discounted Cash Flow December 12th 2020

Important assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at HITEJINRO as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.929. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Can we work out why the company is trading at a premium to intrinsic value? For HITEJINRO, we've put together three relevant elements you should explore:

  1. Risks: For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for HITEJINRO that you should be aware of before investing here.
  2. Future Earnings: How does A000080's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every South Korean stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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