Stock Analysis

Here's Why Nuriplan (KOSDAQ:069140) Is Weighed Down By Its Debt Load

KOSDAQ:A069140
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Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We note that Nuriplan Co., Ltd. (KOSDAQ:069140) does have debt on its balance sheet. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

When Is Debt A Problem?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

View our latest analysis for Nuriplan

What Is Nuriplan's Net Debt?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at September 2020 Nuriplan had debt of ₩58.8b, up from ₩56.5b in one year. On the flip side, it has ₩4.86b in cash leading to net debt of about ₩53.9b.

debt-equity-history-analysis
KOSDAQ:A069140 Debt to Equity History January 12th 2021

How Strong Is Nuriplan's Balance Sheet?

According to the last reported balance sheet, Nuriplan had liabilities of ₩68.3b due within 12 months, and liabilities of ₩20.0b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of ₩4.86b as well as receivables valued at ₩25.1b due within 12 months. So its liabilities total ₩58.4b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

When you consider that this deficiency exceeds the company's ₩51.3b market capitalization, you might well be inclined to review the balance sheet intently. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

Nuriplan shareholders face the double whammy of a high net debt to EBITDA ratio (6.6), and fairly weak interest coverage, since EBIT is just 1.5 times the interest expense. This means we'd consider it to have a heavy debt load. However, the silver lining was that Nuriplan achieved a positive EBIT of ₩5.5b in the last twelve months, an improvement on the prior year's loss. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is Nuriplan's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So it is important to check how much of its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) converts to actual free cash flow. During the last year, Nuriplan burned a lot of cash. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.

Our View

On the face of it, Nuriplan's net debt to EBITDA left us tentative about the stock, and its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But at least its EBIT growth rate is not so bad. After considering the datapoints discussed, we think Nuriplan has too much debt. While some investors love that sort of risky play, it's certainly not our cup of tea. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 4 warning signs with Nuriplan (at least 1 which shouldn't be ignored) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

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