Stock Analysis

The 12% return this week takes Hokuriku GasLtd's (TSE:9537) shareholders three-year gains to 54%

TSE:9537
Source: Shutterstock

Vanguard founder Jack Bogle helped spearhead the low-cost index fund, putting average returns within reach of every investor. But if you pick the right individual stocks, you could make more than that. For example, the Hokuriku Gas Co.,Ltd. (TSE:9537) share price is up 43% in the last three years, slightly above the market return. More recently the stock has gained 8.2% in a year, which isn't too bad.

On the back of a solid 7-day performance, let's check what role the company's fundamentals have played in driving long term shareholder returns.

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During the three years of share price growth, Hokuriku GasLtd actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) drop 104% per year.

This means it's unlikely the market is judging the company based on earnings growth. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

It may well be that Hokuriku GasLtd revenue growth rate of 5.4% over three years has convinced shareholders to believe in a brighter future. If the company is being managed for the long term good, today's shareholders might be right to hold on.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
TSE:9537 Earnings and Revenue Growth April 30th 2025

Take a more thorough look at Hokuriku GasLtd's financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Hokuriku GasLtd's TSR for the last 3 years was 54%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that Hokuriku GasLtd shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 11% over one year. That's including the dividend. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 7% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Hokuriku GasLtd that you should be aware of.

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Japanese exchanges.

If you're looking to trade Hokuriku GasLtd, open an account with the lowest-cost platform trusted by professionals, Interactive Brokers.

With clients in over 200 countries and territories, and access to 160 markets, IBKR lets you trade stocks, options, futures, forex, bonds and funds from a single integrated account.

Enjoy no hidden fees, no account minimums, and FX conversion rates as low as 0.03%, far better than what most brokers offer.

Sponsored Content

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Hokuriku GasLtd might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

Access Free Analysis

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.